Tariffs:
Trump stated that he reached a trade agreement with China on Wednesday
Commerce Secretary Lighthizer stated that they will continue to maintain the framework of the (Geneva Trade Agreement) with the Chinese side, and completed the signing with them two days ago. This agreement incorporates the provisions listed in the trade agreement between China and the US into the code. The terms include various rare earth materials for American wind turbine engines and jet planes.
Meanwhile, Lighthizer stated that the White House is about to reach agreements with 10 trading partners.
The Chinese side has not provided a clear response to this.
Regarding tariffs, currently it remains a one-sided view from Trump and the US. It is important to note how many trade agreements Trump can sign in the next few days. Meanwhile, regarding the trade agreement with China, although both sides have signed the agreement, it is still crucial to focus on how the specific implementation will unfold in the future. Of course, this raises the probability of interest rate cuts in the current market.
The easing of the trade agreement naturally reduces the impact of tariffs on inflation, and as the inflation impact weakens, it naturally increases expectations for interest rate cuts; after all, Powell himself has said that if it weren't for Trump's tariffs, the Federal Reserve would have cut rates long ago!
If Trump's subsequent tariff policy really eases significantly, then the ball is in Powell's court!
Of course, the tariff trade becoming a hotspot again in July clearly indicates that even if the tariff trade eases in July, the interest rate cut in September seems even more reasonable.
Currently, the probability of a rate cut in July has increased to 20.7%, previously it was 18.6%, an increase of 2.1 percentage points.
Currently, the probability of a rate cut in September has increased to 72.2%, previously it was around 61%.
It must be said that Trump's easing attitude on trade has clearly accelerated the pace of interest rate cuts, especially with a high probability of a cut in September, which seems reasonable on the timeline.
Implicit benefits:
The US Treasury announced an agreement with G7 member states, and the new agreement will grant US companies tax collection exemptions in certain countries. In exchange, the Trump administration will remove the '899' retaliatory tax clause from the (Great American Beauty Act).
The proposal of the amendment has greatly alleviated concerns among American companies about taxes, which can be considered an implicit potential benefit.
Financial Markets:
Gold has fallen below 3300, and as expectations for interest rate cuts heat up, long-term bond yields continue to slow down.
The Nasdaq has broken through historical highs and is holding steady, while the S&P touched a historical peak and then slightly retreated, currently the S&P futures are up 0.15% in pre-market.
Bitcoin continues to maintain a range of fluctuations at the hourly level, showing stability.
Overnight, the situation has turned around dramatically, with benefits fully displayed; let’s see if Friday, as the last trading day of the week, can 'perfectly' close up.
Compared to the interest rate cut expectations driven by tariff policies, tonight's May PCE data seems slightly less important, and its weight will be greatly reduced.
However, it is still necessary to pay attention to the fact that with US stocks at new highs and benefits fully displayed, the market may experience FOMO, at which point one should be cautious of the series of reactions that follow after emotions reach a threshold; blindly following FOMO has historically brought 'dangerous' feedback.
As for BTC, tonight is a good opportunity to test 108,900. If it cannot break through this level tonight and has to wait until next week, the bullish sentiment brought by benefits may gradually fade after a weekend reaction!#加密市场回调 #币安Alpha上新 #BTC #ETH #bnb $BTC $ETH 
