1. Overview of the Aevo project
Aevo is a decentralized derivatives trading platform focused on options and perpetual contracts, operating on the Aevo L2 (Ethereum Layer 2) based on the Optimism technology stack. Its core features include:
- High-performance trading: supports over 5,000 transactions per second, with cumulative trading volume exceeding $55 billion.
- Hybrid trading model: utilizes off-chain order book matching and on-chain settlement, providing a low-latency and high-performance experience similar to centralized exchanges while retaining decentralized security and transparency.
- Product diversity: supports options, perpetual contracts, pre-issue token futures, yield strategies (such as Theta Vaults), covering more than 50 assets, including major cryptocurrencies like BTC, ETH, and SOL.
- Team and background: Developed by the Ribbon Finance team, core members from institutions such as Coinbase, Kraken, and Goldman Sachs, supported by top investment firms like Paradigm, Dragonfly Capital, and Coinbase Ventures, with a cumulative financing amount of $16.6 million.
2. Token economics and market data
Aevo's native token is $AEVO, with functions including governance, staking for trading fee discounts, and rewards. Below are key data (as of July 16, 2025):
- Total supply: 1 billion $AEVO
- Circulating supply: approximately 908.79 million $AEVO (accounting for 91% of total supply).
- Current price: approximately $0.109 per token.
- Fully diluted valuation (FDV): approximately $10.9 million (1 billion × $0.109).
- 24-hour trading volume: approximately $19.63 million, accounting for about 19.8% of market capitalization (Vol/MCap).
- Historical peak: $3.74 (March 28, 2024), current price has dropped about 97.1% from the historical peak.
- Total value locked (TVL): approximately $450 million, TVL/market cap ratio approximately 4.55 (2025 data).
Analysis:
- TVL/market cap ratio: the TVL/market cap ratio is 4.55, indicating that the market valuation of Aevo is relatively low. In July 2024, this ratio was 5.89, indicating that the market considered Aevo's valuation to be high at that time, and the current decline in ratio may reflect cooling market sentiment or price adjustments.
- Token release and inflation: Aevo's token release plan indicates that tokens from the seed round, A round, and A+ round will be fully unlocked by May 2024, with the initial circulating supply accounting for 11% of FDV. Currently, 91% of tokens are in circulation, and the release of remaining tokens may exert downward pressure on prices.
- Trading volume: the proportion of 24-hour trading volume to market cap is relatively high (19.8%), indicating good token liquidity, but may also reflect high speculative trading.
3. Valuation methods
To assess Aevo's reasonable valuation, we can combine the following methods:
(1) Valuation based on TVL
In DeFi projects, the TVL/market cap ratio is a key indicator. Currently, Aevo's TVL is $450 million, with a market cap of approximately $98.9 million, resulting in a TVL/market cap ratio of 4.55. In comparison:
- The TVL/market cap ratio for similar DeFi derivatives protocols (such as dYdX, GMX) typically ranges from 0.5 to 2.0.
- If Aevo's TVL/market cap ratio adjusts to the industry average level (assumed to be 1.0), its reasonable market cap would be: $450 million, corresponding to a price of approximately $0.495 per $AEVO token. Therefore, based on TVL valuation, Aevo's reasonable price may be around $0.495, approximately 354% higher than the current price.
(2) Valuation based on historical financing
Aevo's valuations in three rounds of financing are as follows:
- Seed round (2020): $18.5 million (10% token, price $0.0185/token).
- A round (2020): $130 million (4.62% token, price $0.13/token).
- A+ round (2022): $250 million (3.5% token, price $0.25/token).
- IEO (March 2024): $250 million (4.5% token, price $0.25/token).
Current FDV ($109 million) is far below the valuation of the A+ round and IEO ($250 million), indicating that market confidence in Aevo may be affected by the overall downturn in the crypto market or slower-than-expected project progress. Assuming the market recovers to the A+ round valuation level ($250 million), the corresponding price is: $0.25, therefore, based on historical financing valuations, Aevo's reasonable price may be around $0.25, about 129% higher than the current price.
(3) Valuation based on trading volume and revenue
Aevo's trading volume performance is strong, with monthly trading volume exceeding $15 billion in 2025, and cumulative trading volume reaching $55 billion. Assuming the platform charges a 0.05% taker fee and a 0.03% maker fee (industry average), we estimate its annual revenue:
Assuming an average trading fee of 0.04% ((0.05% + 0.03%) / 2), with an annual trading volume of $15 billion × 12 = $180 billion:
Annual revenue = $180 billion × 0.0004 = $72 million
The price-to-sales ratio (P/S Ratio) for DeFi projects typically ranges from 5-20. Assuming a P/S ratio of 10, the reasonable market cap would be: $720 million, corresponding to a price of $0.72 per $AEVO token. Therefore, based on trading volume and revenue valuation, Aevo's reasonable price may be around $0.72, approximately 627% higher than the current price.
(4) Valuation based on industry comparison
Comparing Aevo with similar decentralized derivatives trading platforms (such as dYdX, GMX, Hyperliquid):
- dYdX: market cap approximately $1.3 billion, TVL approximately $500 million, TVL/market cap ratio approximately 0.38.
- GMX: market cap approximately $400 million, TVL approximately $600 million, TVL/market cap ratio approximately 1.5.
- Hyperliquid: no clear market cap data, but its lower fees (0.01% maker, 0.035% taker) attract significant trading volume.
Aevo's TVL ($450 million) is comparable to dYdX and GMX, but its market cap ($98.9 million) is far below both, indicating it may be undervalued. Assuming Aevo's TVL/market cap ratio approaches GMX's 1.5, the reasonable market cap would be: $300 million, corresponding to a price of $0.3, thus, based on industry comparison valuation, Aevo's reasonable price may be around $0.33, approximately 203% higher than the current price.
4. Key factors influencing valuation
(1) Advantages and opportunities
- Technological advantages: Aevo L2's high throughput (>5000 TPS) and low latency (<10ms) make it competitive in the DeFi derivatives market, providing an experience close to that of centralized exchanges.
- Market potential: The decentralized derivatives market is relatively small (daily trading volume around $10-20 billion, far below centralized exchanges' $80 billion), but there is immense growth potential. Aevo currently holds about 28% of the DeFi options trading market, ranking in the top five.
- Innovative products: unique features such as pre-issue token futures and aeUSD stablecoin (with an annual yield of 4.75%) attract speculators and liquidity providers.
- Community and ecosystem: Aevo incentivizes user participation through airdrops and staking rewards, enhancing community engagement. The airdrop in March 2024 (45 million $AEVO, accounting for 4.5% of total supply) increased market attention.
(2) Risks and challenges
- Market competition: Aevo faces intense competition from dYdX, GMX, Hyperliquid, as well as centralized exchanges (such as Deribit, Binance). Centralized exchanges still dominate the options trading market, and DeFi protocols need to further improve user experience and liquidity.
- Regulatory risks: Derivatives trading faces strict regulations globally, and Aevo has introduced KYC/AML procedures to meet compliance requirements, which may limit its decentralized characteristics.
- Market sentiment: The current price has dropped 97.1% from its historical peak, reflecting insufficient market confidence in Aevo or the overall DeFi market.
5. Reasonable valuation range
Based on the above analysis, Aevo's reasonable valuation range is as follows:
- Conservative estimate (based on historical financing valuation): $0.25 per token, market cap approximately $227 million (FDV $250 million).
- Neutral estimate (based on TVL and industry comparison): $0.33-$0.495 per token, with a market cap of approximately $300-450 million.
- Optimistic estimate (based on trading volume and revenue): $0.792 per token, market cap approximately $720 million.
The current price ($0.109) is below all valuation ranges, indicating that Aevo may be undervalued by the market. However, achieving valuations depends on market sentiment recovery, sustained trading volume growth, and the overall development of the DeFi derivatives market.
6. Conclusion and recommendations
As a technologically advanced DeFi derivatives platform backed by top investment firms, Aevo has significant growth potential, but its current low market cap may reflect cautious market sentiment towards the DeFi derivatives sector or short-term speculative sentiment. The reasonable valuation range is between $0.25 and $0.792 per token, corresponding to a market cap of $227-720 million. Investors should pay attention to the following factors:
- Short-term: monitor trading volume, TVL growth, and token unlocking plans to avoid downward price pressure due to inflation.
- Long-term: Aevo's success depends on its ability to further capture market share from centralized exchanges and its adaptability in a regulatory environment.
- Investment advice: At the current price ($0.109), Aevo may have investment value, but it is recommended to build positions gradually and closely monitor market trends and technical indicators (such as whether RSI enters the oversold zone).
