Do not let anxiety dominate you; patience is the greatest advantage in trading.
Yesterday's news:
1. Trump again calls for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.
2. U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency head: Lawmakers will accuse Powell of perjury.
3. The U.S. House of Representatives has passed three cryptocurrency bills, including CLARITY and GENIUS.
4. U.S. retail sales for June recorded a month-on-month increase of 0.6%, the highest since March this year, exceeding the market expectation of 0.1%.
5. Europe E3 emphasizes that if substantial progress is not made on the Iran nuclear deal by the end of summer, they will reimpose UN sanctions on Iran.
6. Trump underwent medical examination due to leg swelling and was found to have chronic venous insufficiency. The White House emphasized that Trump's health is still very good.
7. Federal Reserve - ① Kugler: It is appropriate to keep the interest rate policy stable for 'some time.'
② Daly: Whether to cut rates in July or September is not the key.
③ Bostic: Rate cuts may be difficult in the short term.
④ Powell responded to the building renovation issue: No rooftop garden, no private elevator, no marble.
⑤ Waller: The Federal Reserve should lower interest rates by 25 basis points at the July meeting.
8. Tariffs - ① Vice Chairman of the Thai Chamber of Commerce: Thailand will propose to exempt 90% of U.S. goods from tariffs.
② British media: The EU plans to introduce new tariffs on U.S. services and export controls as a retaliatory measure after trade negotiations broke down.
③ White House trade adviser Navarro: EU VAT is also a form of subsidy. We hope to see VAT reductions and tariffs lowered.
④ Brazilian President Lula: Will regulate and tax U.S. digital companies.
Bitcoin exchange wallet balance changes:
In the past 24 hours, 30,000 Bitcoins flowed into exchanges, and large holders are selling again~ Among them, Coinbase had a net inflow of 28,000 Bitcoins, Binance had a net inflow of 1,092 Bitcoins, indicating that large U.S. holders or funds are participating in selling~
Bitcoin contract liquidation map:
Rising to 122000, 1.1 billion in short positions liquidated, falling to 117200, 1.8 billion in long positions liquidated.
Daily analysis:
After repeated tug-of-war yesterday, Bitcoin finally closed with a hanging man pattern, and there is heavy selling pressure above. As the price recovers above the 5MA, after the daily close, the price saw a wave of rise! Currently, the interest rate cut plan has completely failed, and the market's upward momentum is left with back-and-forth liquidation contracts, but with the participation of large spot sellers, the price is expected to fluctuate repeatedly~ Today's resistance level is near yesterday's daily high of 121000, today's support is 117300, 113650. Currently, the 10MA has reached around 117700, which will also be a key point for the struggle between bulls and bears~
4-hour:
Pay attention to the small rising trend line over four hours, nearby can take long positions; if it breaks and rebounds, can short~
Currently, the lower box is the support, the upper edge is 118000, and the lower edge is 116400.
1-hour:
Currently, 119900 is the short-term support; if tested and broken, the price will move downwards~
Bitcoin summary: Selling pressure is back; currently, Bitcoin appears to be in a fluctuating market~ The upward momentum is insufficient, and back-and-forth liquidation contracts are causing price fluctuations~ Currently waiting for large holders' actions.
Support: 117700, 117300, 113650
Resistance: 121000, 121600
Ethereum exchange balance changes:
In the past 24 hours, Ethereum had a net inflow of 4000, which can be ignored; large holders paused their exchange deposits~
Ethereum contract liquidation map:
Currently, Ethereum continues to rise, still liquidating a large number of short positions, and similarly accumulating a large number of long positions below. The price reached 3660, liquidating 300 million in short positions.
The price reached 3500, liquidating 800 million in long positions.
Daily analysis:
Ethereum has risen 50% in 14 days; this rise currently belongs to a short squeeze rise. Once short positions are liquidated, it will also drop significantly. Focus on Bitcoin's situation~, currently Bitcoin's sideways fluctuation has provided an opportunity for a short squeeze~ Currently, the only remaining resistance levels above are around 3750 and the previous high around 4100, whether the main force will take the liquidity here~ depends on the main force's mood. Currently, the liquidity above is still very low, but there is a lot of liquidity below~
Currently, due to continuous rises, the support is also quite far away, and none have been tested, so it can only be measured using Fibonacci, but due to excessive rises, the profit-taking is also substantial. If there is indeed a downturn, it is not advised to build positions on the left side~ Support levels: 3270, 3050, 2875
4-hour:
On the four-hour level, the only decent support is around 3050~
Ethereum summary: Retracement rises often lead to retracement falls, but it is not recommended to trade without signals (short without signals, long without signals).
Support: 3270, 3050, 2875
Resistance: 3750, 4100
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SOL:
Daily analysis: Bitcoin's sideways movement has given a turning point for cryptocurrencies that haven't risen previously, but after the rebound, Bitcoin will basically face a correction~, don't recommend chasing long positions~ SOL resistance levels: around 185, 195, support around the 5MA at 170, and 165.
Resistance levels: 185, 195
Support: around 170, and 165
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