A feeling of 'unease' has been validated these days. I haven't updated, wanting to withdraw from this crazy market and take a break.

As a result, this morning, when I opened the backend and saw those few numbers still silently growing, I couldn't feel happy at all.

An account that hasn't updated for several days still has hundreds of people watching. My style is not that of a hitmaker, yet the heat remains undiminished.

What does this indicate? It indicates that the market has really 'heated up'. So hot that even I, a 'veteran', am starting to be treated as 'in demand'.

But what makes me feel even more 'uneasy' are those 'new friends' adding me on WeChat. Their avatars are very new, very cartoonish. Their questions are no longer about logical discussions like before, but all turned into:

‘Boss, recommend an altcoin, one that can 'catch up' immediately!’

‘Boss, ETH has reached a new high, is it too late for me to go all-in on SOL?’

‘Boss, what's different about this bull market compared to 2021?’

As I see these questions, I smoke one by one. I feel like a 'fortune teller', not a 'researcher'. I feel like a 'KOL shouting', not a 'brother sharing logic'.

And when everyone starts 'praying', starts frantically seeking a 'wealth code' from others...

This is often not far from the next 'great sacrifice'.

1: The beautiful illusion—When the K-line peaks, did you really peak?

We have to admit that the current market looks indeed good. So good that it feels a bit 'unreal'.

A grand carnival

The 'big brother' is charging ahead: Bitcoin, this 'stabilizing force', has once again reached 120,000 USD. Those 'smart people' who got off at 80,000 or 90,000 are probably kicking themselves.

The 'Wall Street gamblers' are entering the market: Over on the US stock side, Coinbase, MicroStrategy, are collectively peaking like they've taken drugs before the market opens. The latest report from Bank of America says the most crowded trade in the world has reverted back to 'longing the tech giants'. In simpler terms: those most greedy and smartest 'gamblers' have returned to risk-taking. They dare to place heavy bets on the 'future' again.

The market is hot. Money seems to be increasing. Everything looks so beautiful.

But, I ask you a very real question. Have you really made money? Are you really happy?

Or do you look at the two 'towering' figures of Bitcoin and Ethereum? Then look down at your own wallet, that pile of altcoins lying motionless on the floor, even bleeding.

Deep down, are you actually very anxious?

On your lips, you chant 'awesome' and 'it's back' with the group. But inside, you're actually bleeding, repeatedly asking yourself: 'Why? Why do they rise while mine doesn't?' 'When will it finally be my turn to break even? When will it be my turn to make money?'

If you feel this way, congratulations. You have not been blinded by this false 'prosperity'. You are infinitely approaching the cruel 'truth' of this 'cold bull market'.

2: Last year's ghost story—the 'catching up dream' that bled rivers.

Before I tell you the 'truth', I must first take you on a 'time machine' back to a year ago. To revisit that 'massacre' that nearly buried all the 'altcoin believers'.

Time: April 2024. Script: Strikingly similar to today.

At that time, Bitcoin had just broken its historical high. The whole market was in cheers. All analysts, all KOLs, were telling the same story, the same script:

‘Bitcoin has broken the ceiling of the bull market!’ ‘Next, it's time for value discovery!’ ‘Smart money should sell Bitcoin and go all-in on those quality altcoins still at the bottom, betting on the inevitable 'catching up' and 'altcoin season'!’

Isn't this script very familiar? Doesn't it look exactly like what you see every day in the group?

At that time, everyone believed it. Including me. Everyone crazily exchanged the profits made from Bitcoin for SOL, ADA, DOT, AVAX... Then sat there waiting. Waiting for that imagined 'immense wealth'.

So what happened? What came was not 'immense wealth'. It was three months of blood flowing like rivers, indiscriminate 'massacres'.

There is no 'catching up'. No 'altcoin season'. No 'value discovery'.

Only when the price of the 'quality altcoins' in your hand has been halved, then halved again, and then halved again. Only when there are countless liquidation messages and accounts forcefully liquidated at four in the morning.

Many people died in that 'night' that should have been the 'dawn'. They did not die in the bear market. They died on the 'eve' of the bull market. They died in their own delusional 'dream' about 'catching up'.

History will not simply repeat itself. But it always carries astonishing rhymes. That time, the market used trillions of dollars to teach us the most expensive lesson: ‘What you think is a 'law' is meant to be broken.’

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3: The three soul questions—Why should it be your turn to 'catch up'?

The ghost story is over. Back to today. I know your heart about 'catching up' is starting to get restless again. Before you prepare to stake your life again, as a 'survivor', I want to ask you three questions that can instantly 'sober you up'.

The first question: Why should 'Bitcoin' rise, and 'altcoins' must rise too? The past was due to money 'overflowing' in the market, which is called 'sector rotation'. But now? Now entering the market are BlackRock! Fidelity! Wall Street giants! Their money is 'institutional money', is 'allocation money', not 'speculative money'! In their reports, buying Bitcoin is 'digital gold', used to 'hedge against the depreciation of the dollar'. Do you think their 'compliant investment guidelines' would say 'buy Bitcoin and conveniently pump a coin called 'Pepe Frog'? When the biggest buyers only buy 'top coins' and don't touch 'small fries', why would you think the 'overflow effect' still exists?

The second question: Why should 'Ethereum' rise, and all 'altcoins' must rise? This logic is even more deceptive. When ETH rises, it directly benefits its 'children' in its own 'empire'! It's L2, it's the leading staking, it's DeFi blue chips! Money will first 'circulate internally' in its own 'empire'. Why should a rise in Ethereum lead to pumping your 'meme coin' issued on Solana? Now it's a blatant 'competitor', not a 'parent-child relationship'! Have you ever seen Tencent's stock price rise, and Alibaba's stock price just 'naturally' follows suit?

The third question: What the hell is this 'K-line pattern' you talk about? Many bros say: 'Boss, look at this coin, it has drawn a particularly beautiful 'rounded bottom', it must rise!' I tell you, before the massacre in April last year, 99% of altcoins drew this 'beautiful' pattern. Then, they directly broke down to the 'basement', then to the second basement, the third basement... Remember a bloody lesson: in the crypto circle, any 'technical pattern' that even retail investors can understand is a 'trap'! It's intentionally drawn by the market makers to lead you 'half-baked' to willingly jump in and take the bait.

The game rules have completely changed.

I'm not saying all this 'pessimistic talk' to bear the market. I want to tell you in the most brutal way: the game has changed.

In the past (2021), it was a 'retail-led' 'emotional market'. It was a contest of who was crazier, who dared to gamble more. In that era, 'catching up' was highly probable.

Now (2025), it is an 'institution-led' 'structural market'. It is a contest of who has the stronger fundamentals, who has the better cash flow, who can be written into Wall Street research reports. In this new game, the so-called 'catching up' is regressing from a 'market rule' into a 'collective delusion of retail investors'.

What should we do? You can no longer blindly bet on the faith of 'catching up'. You must, like a top VC, re-examine every altcoin in your hand, like a detective, and ask yourself a few 'soul questions' that can determine its life or death:

Who is its 'father'? (fundamentals) What real needs does it solve? Is the team 'regular army' or 'wild chicken'?

Where does the 'money' to buy it come from? (capital side) Are the buying addresses hundreds of 'small retail investors' or a few 'whales' quietly accumulating? (Check with Arkham)

Where is its 'story' now? (narrative) Is the track it is in a 'sunset track' or a 'new emerging track'?

Only after you have affirmative answers to these three questions can you put your money in.

Final advice: Don't be that 'lazy man' lying on the tracks anymore.

The K-line can only tell you about the 'past', it can never tell you about the 'future'. I suggest you treat the K-line like the 'not bad looking face' of a potential wife. You can admire it, but you must never decide to marry her just because of that face.

So, brothers, wake up a bit. Don't be that 'lazy man' lying on the tracks, waiting for the 'catching up' train to pick you up. The probability is high that what you wait for is not a train, but a road roller.

You must take action to find that 'value train' that can truly take you through the bull and bear cycles.

Alright, that's all for today. Finally, I would like to ask you:

In this current 'institutional market', what do you think, besides the K-line, is the most important 'signal' to determine whether an altcoin has 'catching up' potential?

Leave your answers in the comments. Let me see how many people here have started walking with the 'new map'.