The current cryptocurrency market is indeed experiencing a 'highlight moment', with Bitcoin breaking $124,000, Ethereum approaching historical highs, and total market capitalization surpassing $4 trillion. These signals are highly indicative. However, as the bull market reaches this point, will it continue to surge or is it nearing a turning point? My judgment is: this bull market is still in the mid-stage, not overheated yet, but structures have begun to differentiate. Here are specific analyses and layout ideas:
1. Why do I believe the bull market will continue? Three major engines are still in action.
1. *Bitcoin: Institutions are hoarding coins + macro narratives support long-term targets.
On-chain data shows that long-term holders (LHP) have not sold off in large quantities; the daily net transfer volume consistently remains below 100,000 (historical sell-off signal is >100,000), and NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) is in the 50%-70% range, aligning with healthy mid-term bull market characteristics.
Adamant Research and other institutions predict Bitcoin still has 4-10x upside potential, targeting $500,000, with the core logic being global fiat currency depreciation and declining safe-haven functionality of bonds, leading to continued capital influx into Bitcoin as the 'ultimate store of value'.
The US Bitcoin spot ETF holdings have reached 1.4 million BTC. Recent donations from prestigious schools like Harvard and Brown have also entered the market through ETFs, providing a 'long-term buy' support.
2. Ethereum: Institutional buying + corporate asset allocation ignites demand.
The US Ethereum spot ETF saw a single-day net inflow exceeding $1 billion, setting a record, with BlackRock (ETHA) and Fidelity (FETH) dominating. More critically, **public companies are triggering an ETH accumulation wave**—companies like BitMine and SharpLink plan to increase their ETH holdings from $7.6 billion to $30.4 billion, a 300% increase!
Ethereum's unique advantage lies in staking yields (4%-6%) + the value of DeFi infrastructure, allowing enterprises to earn cash flow through staking, which is a 'yield-generating property' that Bitcoin lacks.
3. Altcoins: Ecosystems like Solana benefit from the capital overflow effect.
Solana DeFi TVL surged 60% in three months to $14.18 billion, with weekly DEX trading volume exceeding $22 billion, as institutions accelerate their layouts due to 'high throughput + low fees'.
However, it is important to note: funds are clearly concentrating on leading altcoins (such as SOL, TRX), while many altcoins still lack fundamental support.
2. Potential risks: signs of overheating are emerging, beware of short-term volatility.
Although the medium-term trend remains unchanged, some indicators suggest localized overheating:
Ethereum's short-term surge has been too rapid: a 45% increase in one month, with prices approaching historical highs; if profit-taking pressure increases, it may trigger a correction.
- Whales' address movements: The top 1,000 Bitcoin wallets have seen an increase in transfer frequency over the past 48 hours, suggesting that large holders may be taking some profits;
Regulatory Black Swan: Coinbase holds 10% of Bitcoin supply, which could impact market confidence if faced with extreme policy actions (such as asset freezes).
3. How to layout? My strategy: core positions + dynamic balance.
1. Bitcoin (50%): As 'digital gold', it remains the most stable asset, and any corrections are opportunities to buy more. Allocation advice: if risk tolerance is low, allocate 5%-10% of the portfolio; if outlook is long-term bullish, increase to 20%-50%.
2. Ethereum (30%): Watch for short-term corrections, but in the medium to long term, it benefits from ETF inflows + corporate staking demand; consider buying in phases at support levels (like $4,000).
3. Leading altcoins (15%-20%):
- Solana (SOL): DeFi ecosystem breakout, with both TVL and trading volume growing simultaneously;
- DeFi blue chips (AAVE, TRX): Aave lending TVL has reached $33 billion, and TRX staking yields remain stable;
- Avoid low market cap meme coins! Projects lacking utility may drop to zero during corrections.
4. Cash (5%): Retaining liquid funds to deal with black swans or participate in low-risk staking (such as ETH staking or treasury bond reverse repos).
In summary: a bull market does not indicate a peak, but the mindset should shift from 'broad gains' to 'selective holdings'. Hold on to core positions in BTC + ETH, use altcoins to seek excess returns, keep some cash on hand, avoid chasing highs, and don't FOMO; the challenges for the second half of the year are just beginning.