Currently, the market and most economists generally believe that the probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in September is extremely high. The key factors mainly include the weak non-farm payroll data in the U.S. over the past few months, rising unemployment rates, and a rebound in inflation, although core indicators show a relief in pressure.
• The CME FedWatch tool shows that the market expects a 94.5% probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 25 basis points in September, with a 5.5% probability of maintaining the current rate.
• A Reuters survey indicates that most economists predict that September will be the first rate cut of the year, with the possibility of another cut within the year.
• Goldman Sachs expects that if the unemployment rate continues to rise, the Federal Reserve may cut rates by as much as 50 basis points; however, the mainstream expectation remains at 25 basis points.
• Recent Federal Reserve meeting minutes reflect an increase in internal divisions, but core officials clearly tend to favor a rate cut within the year, with the “wait-and-see period” basically ending, making September a window period.
• Although U.S. inflation rebounded to 2.7% in July and core inflation also rebounded to 3.1%, the ongoing cooling of the labor market has a greater impact on the Federal Reserve's decision-making.
• Treasury Secretary Basant and some politicians continue to pressure for significant rate cuts, ranging from 50 to 150 basis points, but the Federal Reserve currently leans more towards “gradual easing.”
• Some Federal Reserve governors still maintain a cautious stance, but the mainstream view has shifted to support a rate cut in the second half of the year.
In summary, the Federal Reserve's rate cut in September has almost become a consensus among the market and institutions, with a very high probability, and the mainstream expectation for the rate cut is 25 basis points, while attention should be paid to a more aggressive policy shift in extreme cases #加密市场回调
• The CME FedWatch tool shows that the market expects a 94.5% probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 25 basis points in September, with a 5.5% probability of maintaining the current rate.
• A Reuters survey indicates that most economists predict that September will be the first rate cut of the year, with the possibility of another cut within the year.
• Goldman Sachs expects that if the unemployment rate continues to rise, the Federal Reserve may cut rates by as much as 50 basis points; however, the mainstream expectation remains at 25 basis points.
• Recent Federal Reserve meeting minutes reflect an increase in internal divisions, but core officials clearly tend to favor a rate cut within the year, with the “wait-and-see period” basically ending, making September a window period.
• Although U.S. inflation rebounded to 2.7% in July and core inflation also rebounded to 3.1%, the ongoing cooling of the labor market has a greater impact on the Federal Reserve's decision-making.
• Treasury Secretary Basant and some politicians continue to pressure for significant rate cuts, ranging from 50 to 150 basis points, but the Federal Reserve currently leans more towards “gradual easing.”
• Some Federal Reserve governors still maintain a cautious stance, but the mainstream view has shifted to support a rate cut in the second half of the year.
In summary, the Federal Reserve's rate cut in September has almost become a consensus among the market and institutions, with a very high probability, and the mainstream expectation for the rate cut is 25 basis points, while attention should be paid to a more aggressive policy shift in extreme cases #加密市场回调