The March meeting of the Federal Reserve demonstrated a sharp change in rhetoric: the regulator officially shifted from a strategy of easing to forced stabilization, facing simultaneous pressure from external shocks and internal price inertia.

Geopolitical fog. The main news is that the rate remained at 3.5%–3.75%. But the devil, as always, is in the details. Jerome Powell, possibly holding one of his last meetings as head of the Fed, looked like a man who realizes that old playbooks no longer work. The conflict between Iran and Israel hit gas stations faster than the Fed could print reports. “We just don’t know,” Powell honestly admitted when asked about the impact of the war. This phrase became the leitmotif of the entire meeting.

Inflation: 'Sticky' and unpleasant. Remember how at the end of 2025 everyone was waiting for a victorious march to 2% inflation? Forget it. The forecast for 2026 has been raised to 2.7%. It turns out that inflation is not only about egg prices, but also the long-lasting effect of tariffs that got stuck in the system like a bone in the throat. The Fed acknowledges: goods are becoming more expensive again, and it's not just because of oil.

Productivity — our savior? The most interesting moment of the presentation is the unexpected optimism about GDP growth (2.4%). Where does the growth come from, if interest rates are high and there is a shortage of labor? The answer lies in the word 'efficiency.' Powell hinted that businesses have learned to do more with fewer resources. Analysts are whispering about AI, but the Fed is cautious in its wording. This is their only trump card: if technology can keep prices in check, the economy will survive even with 'expensive' money.

What does this mean for us? For the markets, this is a cold shower. Dreams of three to four rate cuts this year have evaporated, leaving only room for one modest reduction 'if lucky.'

The Fed continues to remain in 'wait-and-see mode.' Powell does not want to go down in history as the person who prematurely declared victory over inflation and then faced a new wave of prices. Therefore, we will live in an era of 'high rates for a long time' — at least until the smoke over the Middle East clears.