Yesterday's capital flow revealed a key turning point: Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net inflow of $198 million, continuing a streak of nine consecutive days of attracting capital, while Ethereum spot ETF unexpectedly recorded a net outflow of $8.54 million, ending its previous streak of eight consecutive days of inflows. This divergence highlights that market capital is accelerating towards Bitcoin, while Ethereum faces significant short-term pressure.
BlackRock's IBIT became the leading Bitcoin ETF with a single-day inflow of $255 million, bringing its total holdings to over $65.19 billion, demonstrating institutional demand for long-term allocation in Bitcoin. In contrast, for Ethereum ETF, aside from BlackRock's ETHA which alone supported with $39.29 million, products like Fidelity and Bitwise experienced large-scale capital withdrawals, especially Fidelity's FETH with a single-day outflow of $30.26 million, reflecting that some investors are taking profits or shifting to other assets.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin's price remains above the $120,000 mark, with continuous capital inflows solidifying its short-term support strength. On-chain data shows that whales have recently established short positions at high levels, such as a certain large holder opening a $420 million short position with 6x leverage, indicating intensified market long-short battles. Meanwhile, Ethereum's network activity remains sluggish, whale selling pressure has not diminished, and insufficient competition for staking rewards (such as the muted market reaction to Grayscale's staking function) has led to a decrease in capital attractiveness.
On the news front, the continuous inflow of Bitcoin ETFs resonates with the Trump administration's crypto-friendly policies and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations. Institutions have been absorbing BTC through ETFs daily, exceeding the daily output of miners, and the supply-demand imbalance may further drive up prices. However, Ethereum is facing intensified Layer 2 competition and the issue of capital diversion for ecological innovation. If it cannot quickly enhance its network value capture capability, the short-term outflow pressure may persist.
Personal opinion, the current capital differentiation confirms the deepening narrative of Bitcoin as 'digital gold' at the institutional level, while Ethereum needs to rely on ecological breakthroughs to regain favor. In terms of operations, a Bitcoin pullback to the range of $122,000 to $124,000 can be seen as a layout opportunity. If Ethereum loses the $4,200 support, it should be wary of a deep correction. The market is about to test key levels, and investors should strictly control risks to avoid blindly chasing highs and cutting losses.
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