Oil is starting to push higher again, with Brent moving back toward $98 as markets react to the ongoing uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed.

This isn’t just a technical move — it’s geopolitical risk being repriced in real time. When supply routes are threatened, oil rises, and that feeds directly into inflation concerns and tighter global liquidity.

At the same time, the ceasefire narrative is beginning to lose credibility, adding another layer of instability.

Markets don’t like uncertainty, and right now that uncertainty is expanding. If tensions escalate further, oil likely continues higher, but if the situation resolves, this move could unwind just as quickly.

This isn’t a clean trend — it’s a binary setup driven by headlines.

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