I. From Blue Ocean to Red Ocean: The Missed Window of Opportunity
Looking at it from the perspective of 2026, Telegram is no longer just a communication software; it is more like a "decentralized operating system disguised as a social networking platform."
However, this operating system is mired in a midlife crisis.
Telegram's biggest regret is that it failed to take advantage of the vacuum created by the WhatsApp privacy controversy and the failure of Facebook Libra to quickly achieve "unification" of the major global markets.
It was a golden opportunity—competitors' credibility was crumbling, user willingness to migrate was at its peak, and the regulatory vacuum hadn't yet been filled. But Telegram missed it.
Today, it boasts over 1 billion monthly active users (MAU) and approximately 500 million daily active users (DAU), yet it is finding its path on the narrow bridge of Web3 increasingly difficult.
What was once a blue ocean has now become a sea of blood.
II. The Shackles of TON
Currently, about one-third of Telegram's revenue is deeply tied to the $TON ecosystem. This means that if the crypto market enters a prolonged bear market, Telegram's cash flow will be extremely precarious. Worse still, it missed the window of opportunity for a more stable "de-crypto-centric" approach to operations, and now it's in a difficult situation.
TON itself is also riddled with problems. In 2025, the TON Foundation underwent several changes in its core members, resulting in chaotic community governance.
This ambiguous "semi-official, semi-community" status makes large institutions extremely hesitant to enter the market—no one can figure out whether TON is an appendage of Telegram or a truly independent decentralized project.
Durov wanted to delegate (decentralize), but his deep-seated desire for control prevented him from truly letting go.
This wavering caused TON to miss several golden opportunities to establish industry standards.
III. Functionality Overload and Trust Collapse
Over the past two years, Telegram has appeared "unambitious" in terms of product development: minor interface tweaks, sticker updates, and short video features—it has made minor repairs but has failed to make a breakthrough in the core construction of the "Web3 ecosystem operating system".
Even more devastating is the shattering of the security myth. Durov's "semi-compromise" under pressure from French law has cracked Telegram's long-standing moat of "absolute privacy."
For high-net-worth individuals in the cryptocurrency world, a breach in trust can be fatal.
Durov actually saw the huge potential of Telegram + Blockchain very early on, but he was too caught up in the "idealistic confrontation" stance and was slow to make actual progress in commercialization and compliance.
Knowing but not acting is the most taboo root of problems.
IV. Ecological degradation: underground gray industry distribution center
Telegram's most awkward situation right now is that it is degenerating from "the hope of decentralization" into "a highly efficient underground trading hub".
Its core prosperity does not stem from technological innovation, but from the harvesting of "forbidden fruit." A large number of OnlyFans creators and gray market operators use X and Reddit as "showcases" and Telegram as "cashiers" and private communities. Its semi-closed, uncensored nature has made it the world's largest delivery center for adult content and the borderline economy.
This distorted payment loop is diluting Telegram's valuation logic: it has been downgraded from a "social media giant" to a "CDN storage service provider." Even with 1 billion users, if these users only consume free "trial versions," the average revenue per user (ARPU) will be pitifully low.
Even more critically, due to rampant fraud and "pig butchering" scams, Telegram has been unable to establish a credit system to support high-value transactions—and this is the fundamental reason why it has lost the opportunity for business upgrading.
V. Durov's Personality Dilemma
To understand Telegram's predicament, one must understand Durov as a person.
He championed minimalism, rejecting mansions, yachts, and even fixed assets, pursuing the ultimate purity of his personal spirit. He portrayed himself as a lone hero fighting against global powers—"the Prometheus of the digital age."
However, the Telegram ecosystem he built has become the world's largest hub of desires, supported by gray market activities, subcultures, gambling, and the cryptocurrency industry.
This divide has given rise to a dangerous management model: on the one hand, relying on the 1 billion users and tens of billions in valuation brought by the traffic from "heretical cultivation," while on the other hand, wielding the moral cudgel to strangle the gray industry and suppress subcultures.
They pick up their bowls to eat, then put down their chopsticks and start cursing.
The root of the problem is that Durov cannot accept the truth: his ideal state is supported by desire.
Once he acknowledges that Telegram's lifeblood is subculture and grassroots traffic, he is no longer "Prometheus" but "nightclub owner".
In order to maintain his heroic persona, he can only continue that kind of "defender of morality" self-destruction—even though it is draining the ecosystem dry.
When Wang Yangming suppressed bandits in southern Jiangxi, he employed methods such as collective punishment through eavesdropping, sowing discord and counter-espionage, and suddenly massacring bandits in the mountains during peace talks—far from the gentle, kind, respectful, frugal, and modest methods found in classical texts. He clearly understood that, when facing ruthless bandits who had entrenched themselves in the mountains for decades, persuasion would be suicidal; cunning was the only righteous path.
Today's Telegram is located in that area of southern Jiangxi, while Durov still maintains the empty title of "freedom fighter" in the mountains.
The true meaning of "unity of knowledge and action" is never about moral fastidiousness, but about seeing reality clearly in the mud and taking decisive action.
VI. Besieged on all sides: Times have changed
By 2026, X's payment loop is taking shape, Meta's virtual ecosystem continues to expand, and various decentralized hardcore protocols are eroding Telegram's first-mover advantage. Regulatory pressure is also mounting.
What Telegram fears most now is not "decline," but "a mediocre, slow death"—becoming an outdated chat app that's neither here nor there under the dual pressure of Musk and regulation.
He possessed a gold mine, yet was unable to mine it due to the leader's personality flaws. The landscape changed, but Durov's nature kept him in the same place.
This misalignment is the beginning of destruction.
Finally, LaoYao (@LaoYao_crypto I'd like to add that this meticulously crafted article is indeed quite incisive. Comments and criticisms are welcome from the Telegram community. LaoYao will accept all rational critiques.