Cryptocurrency analyst VisionPulsed recently stated that Dogecoin (DOGE) may see seasonal upward opportunities in November, but this requires certain conditions to be met: a broader "risk appetite" transfer in the U.S. stock market to the cryptocurrency market, and Bitcoin must hold key moving average support levels.
In a video update on October 28, he linked the recent rise of Dogecoin to a familiar correlation pattern: S&P strengthens → Russell 2000 index follows → Ethereum breaks out → Dogecoin powers up. He pointed out, "November may see a significant surge like in previous years," referencing the historical trends of bottoming out at the end of October in 2022 and 2023, followed by a rebound in November. He also mentioned that current stock market sentiment is optimistic, with the S&P continuing to gap up, and historically, a risk appetite in the stock market often benefits the performance of the cryptocurrency market.
Dogecoin's November trend outlook
The path depicted by VisionPulsed is clear and hierarchical: "If the S&P continues to rise, the Russell 2000 index may follow suit... As we have repeatedly emphasized, Russell breakouts often lead to Ethereum breakouts, as seen in 2017 and 2020. If both Russell and Ethereum can break out, Dogecoin has the chance to follow suit." He analyzes that Dogecoin is currently in an upward channel, with prices oscillating upward along the trend line, expecting to continue consolidating in early November, with a potential acceleration to test the upper channel boundary around mid-month.
The trend is not absolute; it depends on the broader environment.
He also emphasized that the current pattern is constructive, but not absolute. "There may not yet be a comprehensive bull market, but at least the outlook is bullish until December." Subsequent trends depend on whether the market welcomes a "altcoin season" and whether Dogecoin can successfully break through the upper channel boundary.
If the price stagnates in the resistance area and there are no signs of a decline in Bitcoin's dominance (i.e., funds have not rotated to altcoins), he warns that a choppy decline might repeat: "If we are blocked again at the top of the channel... it may fall towards the lower or middle channel boundary." On the downside, he mentioned a possible retreat to around $0.13; on the upside, if the altcoin season arrives, there is potential to hit the $0.80-$0.90 range, but he also reminded that if there is indeed a significant rise in December, it could form a local peak, requiring real-time reassessment.
The Bitcoin trend is the core premise
He specifically pointed out that whether Bitcoin can hold the moving average is key to determining the overall trend: "If Bitcoin falls below this average, then the bull market does not exist - we are actually in a bear market. But as long as it holds... the upward trend will continue." He likened this dynamic to the S&P's "blue circle rebound" and expects Bitcoin to make a similar moving average response to maintain the risk cycle of the cryptocurrency market.
The trend of Ethereum is also seen as an important signal; it is both a beneficiary of small-cap stocks' strength and a verification indicator for altcoin rotation: "If the S&P and Russell can both rise, it opens the green light for Ethereum. If Ethereum can break through, Dogecoin has a chance."
Timing and mindset preparation
VisionPulsed expects that the market will primarily oscillate upward in early November, "possibly pushing Dogecoin to test the upper channel boundary in mid-November," after which the market will confirm whether it enters altcoin season or retreats for reorganization. He also remains cautious, emphasizing the need to keep an open mind about the possibility of "no altcoin season."
In summary, he views the current stage as tactically bullish, but the trend is still influenced by the dual effects of channel and Bitcoin moving average support. "As long as we do not fall below the lower channel boundary, there is a chance to test the upper boundary." The message he ultimately conveys to traders is: November provides an opportunity window, but stock market performance, Bitcoin trends, and Ethereum movements are key to determining whether Dogecoin can achieve a breakout. As he said: "Please note that the above content does not constitute financial advice."
As of the time of writing, DOGE is priced at $0.19372.
