According to CoinDesk, a new report from the Anti-Corruption Data Collective found that longshot bets in Polymarket's military and defense markets win 51.8% of the time, against a 14% baseline across political markets, based on analysis of more than 435,000 contracts and $54.4 billion in cumulative volume from January 2021 through mid-March 2026. The study, which examined the June 2025 U.S. strikes on Iran as a case study, found that 19 longshot bets totaling $164,292 were placed in the hours before resolution, with eight wallets sharing about $1.8 million in profits. The findings build on separate research showing fewer than 1% of wallets capture roughly half of all Polymarket gains, raising broad questions about information asymmetry in prediction markets tied to government and military decisions.