Halving time and core parameters
▣ Expected date: October 15, 2026 (mainnet launched on 2020.10.15, first halving in 6 years)
▣ Block reward: 32 FIL / block → 16 FIL / block (direct halving)
▣ Total supply: 2 billion coins (permanently fixed, no inflation)
▣ Reward structure: 25% instant release + 75% 180-day linear release (fixed)
Filecoin halving mechanism (dual-track minting)
1) Simple Minting — 6-year halving
▣ Represents about 30% of miner rewards, halving every 6 years, first trigger on 2026.10.15
▣ Formula: Block reward (simple) = Initial value / 2^(number of cycles)
▣ Function: Control long-term inflation by cutting the base output in half every 6 years
2) Baseline Minting — Dynamic adjustment
▣ Accounts for about 70% of miner rewards, linked to the effective hash rate of the entire network, does not halve over time
▣ Mechanism: All network hash rates must meet standards (baseline) to release all rewards; insufficient hash rates will be proportionally deducted to prevent early inflation from being too high
▣ Characteristics: The faster the hash rate increases, the more baseline rewards; long-term naturally reverts as the network matures
3) Differences from Bitcoin halving
▣ Bitcoin: 4 years halving, single mechanism, rewards are directly halved, total of 21 million
▣ Filecoin: 6 years halving + dynamic baseline, dual-track model, only simple minting is halved, total of 2 billion
Common misconceptions clarified:
❌ Total halving: Total of 2 billion remains unchanged, only new output is halved
❌ All rewards halved: Only the simple minting part is halved, baseline minting adjusts dynamically
• Current daily output: 64,259 FIL/day
• Current reward per block: 4.4978 FIL/block
• Simple minting ratio: about 30% (only this part will be halved)
• Baseline minting ratio: about 70% (not affected by halving, changes naturally with hash rate)
❌ Immediate surge: Supply and demand + hash rate + macro factors jointly determine; halving is a long-term catalyst
Key data comparison of Filecoin before and after the October halving
Indicators
Before halving (current state)
Post-halving (expected state)
Explanation of changes
Mainnet time from 2020.10.15 to 2026.10.15 Starting from 2026.10.15 (first halving) 6-year cycle halving node block height about 6,025,681 about 6,550,000 Halving will trigger at a height of about 6.55 million Initial block reward of 32 FIL/block 16 FIL/block Only the simple minting part is halved Actual current block reward ~4.5 FIL/block ~2.5-3.0 FIL/block Baseline minting continues to decline with the maturity of hash rate Daily new FIL output ~64,000 FIL/day ~50,000 FIL/day Supply directly reduced by about 40%-50% Annual inflation rate ~18% ~7% Below this enters a long-term low-inflation channel Simple minting accounts for about 30% (of original reward) about 15% (after halving) Only this part is affected by halving Baseline minting accounts for about 70% (of original reward) Adjusts dynamically with hash rate, does not halve directly, naturally reverts over time SAFT/team unlock continues linear release Ended on 2026.10.15 Early selling pressure completely eliminated Total effective hash rate 15.801 EiB expected 17-18 EiB (half-year growth) Hash rate growth will partially offset baseline reward decline 24h miner storage yield 0.0039 FIL/TiB expected 0.002-0.0025 FIL/TiB Single machine income further under pressure FIL circulation rate 43.26% expected around 40% New supply reduction, circulation growth slows Staking + burning locked amount ~124 million FIL expected 130 million + FIL Locked funds continue to increase, reducing actual circulation
Core changes interpretation
Dual contraction on the supply side
▣ Halving of block rewards leads to a direct reduction of about half in daily new FIL
▣ Adding the end of SAFT/team unlock, market selling pressure faces a 'turning point on the supply side'
The reshuffling effect on the miner side
▣ After halving, inefficient, high-cost miners will accelerate their exit, and hash rate will concentrate on leading low-cost nodes.
▣ Industry concentration increases, and network stability will actually enhance
The rhythm of market expectations transmission
▣ In the 3-6 months before halving, the market will likely price in "low inflation expectations," possibly leading to phase-based volatility.
▣ 180 days after halving, the 75% linear release of miner rewards will fully transmit to the market, truly entering a low supply phase
Daily new circulation after halving
▣ Current daily output: 64,259 FIL/day
▣ Current reward per block: 4.4978 FIL/block
▣ Simple minting ratio: about 30% (only this part will be halved)
▣ Baseline minting ratio: about 70% (not affected by halving, changes naturally with hash rate)
Calculation of daily new circulation after halving
(1) Halved part of the reward (simple minting)
• Current simple minting daily output: 64,259 × 30% ≈ 19,278 FIL/day After halving: 19,278 ÷ 2 ≈ 9,639 FIL/day
(2) The part unaffected by halving (baseline minting)
• Current baseline minting daily output: 64,259 × 70% ≈ 44,981 FIL/day After halving: remains unchanged (does not halve over time, only adjusts dynamically with hash rate)
(3) Theoretical daily new output after halving
• 9,639 + 44,981 ≈ 54,620 FIL/day
Also consider the flow rhythm of 'immediate release vs linear release'
The structure of miner block rewards is:
▣ 25% immediate release: directly enters circulation on the same day
▣ 75% linear release over 180 days: released gradually into the market over 6 months
Thus, the actual daily new circulation after halving (including linear release part):
▣ On the day of halving: 54,620 × 25% ≈ 13,655 FIL/day
▣ 180 days after halving (after full transmission): approximately 50,000 - 55,000 FIL/day (including the linear release overlap of new and old rewards)
Daily new circulation of Filecoin before and after halving
Current 24-hour release situation
Breaking down the key impacts in conjunction with halving
Current daily new circulation composition
▣ Miner rewards: 64,319 FIL/day (about 25.6%)
▣ Genesis lock release: 187,126 FIL/day (about 74.4%)
▣ Total: 251,445 FIL/day
In other words, over 70% of the new selling pressure in the current market comes from the early lock release, while miner rewards only account for a small portion.
Changes in daily new circulation after halving
(1) Changes in miner reward part
▣ Current miner daily output: 64,319 FIL/day (only simple minting part is halved)
▣ Daily output of miners after halving: about 54,600 FIL/day (decrease of about 15%)
▣ The impact of this part on total circulation: from 25.6% down to about 22%
(2) Key changes in genesis lock release
▣ On October 15, 2026, the SAFT/team's 6-year linear release will end simultaneously
▣ After halving, this part of 187,126 FIL/day selling pressure will be directly eliminated
(3) Final daily new circulation after halving
▣ Miner rewards after halving (approximately 54,600 FIL/day) + Genesis lock release (0) = approximately 54,600 FIL/day
▣ Compared to the current 251,445 FIL/day, daily new circulation will decrease by about 78%, and selling pressure will experience a cliff-like drop.
Many people believe that halving only means miner rewards are halved and selling pressure decreases by 50%, but in reality, the end of early lock releases is the core factor in the reduction of selling pressure. The real benefit of halving is the combination of halved miner rewards + the end of early unlocks, which will directly reduce the market's new supply pressure by nearly 80%, leading to a fundamental reversal in supply and demand dynamics.
▣ Before halving (current): Daily new circulation is about 251,000 FIL/day, of which 74% comes from genesis lock release, while miner rewards only account for 26%.
▣ On the day of halving: daily new circulation plummets to about 55,000 FIL/day, the core reason being the zeroing of the genesis lock release, with miner rewards only slightly declining.
▣ 180 days after halving (stabilization phase): Daily new circulation further drops to about 50,000 FIL/day, and the market enters a long-term low selling pressure channel, with selling pressure decreasing by nearly 80% compared to the current level.
The real benefit of halving for the market is not just the halving of miner rewards, but the dual overlapping effect of halved miner rewards + the end of early unlocks.
After halving, the new supply in the market will see a fundamental reversal, greatly improving the supply-demand imbalance.
Key conclusions and market significance
▣ The drop in selling pressure far exceeds expectations: daily new circulation drops from about 250,000 FIL to about 50,000 FIL, a decrease of nearly 80%, fundamentally reversing the supply and demand pattern.
▣ The gradual impact: Halving does not immediately change the market; the effect of reduced selling pressure will gradually manifest within 180 days post-halving, and the market is likely to price in this change in advance.
▣ Long-term fundamental support: The combination of halving and the end of early unlocks significantly improves Filecoin's inflation and selling pressure issues, providing long-term fundamental support for the price, while the industry will accelerate the elimination of inefficient miners, concentrating on leading nodes.
Source of material: Official media/network news
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