#加密市场回调 Every new trader entering the market is searching for their own trading bible, dreaming of being that trading genius, trying to find a way to trade without losses. However, I want to tell you that what you are pursuing does not exist; no one can achieve a loss-free trading! So what exactly are we pursuing, what are we learning, and what is it that we are comprehending?
I may be saying this in a way that many will refute by saying: your inability does not mean others cannot do it. If you have systematically studied, you would know that almost all traders or trading geniuses will tell you to cut losses! If there really was a bible, why would we need to cut losses? It would only require taking profits. As we know, figures like Livermore, Elliott, Wyckoff, and many others, all technical analysis indicates that we should cut losses. This shows that a loss-free trading method certainly does not exist! There is no such thing as a one hundred percent win rate!
Since there is no definitive trading method, not making one-time trades and not going all in is undoubtedly the correct approach. Next comes how to improve the win rate, how to control position size, how to manage mindset and execution, and continuously refine and improve one's trading method!
Personally, I believe that all technical analysis of candlestick charts is too superficial, including patterns, key support and resistance levels, as well as some technical indicators like MACD and moving averages, which are merely superficial. The so-called superficial means that the current price or formed pattern has little significance for the future price trend. I once relied heavily on technical analysis in trading, and it felt like relying on chart price behavior. The only possibly useful aspect is when the price repeatedly breaks through or fails to break through key resistance and support levels; when that happens, history tends to repeat itself, and it feels like being possessed by a stock god or gambling god—it's terrifying! However, if the market does not follow this pattern, the win rate will be very low!
When you truly understand Wyckoff's theory, you may begin to comprehend the essence of the market. What is it, really? Many times we think the market is random or chaotic, but his theory tells us to assume that the market is not random but rather controlled by capital. In other words, those with more funds can influence the market's rise or fall, or whichever side has stronger forces will determine the market direction. I find this idea quite agreeable. At this moment, the bullish and bearish forces are already reflected in the candlestick chart prices. We do not know who will buy or sell next, how much they will buy or sell, or make those judgments. When we understand which force currently dominates the market and analyze the relationship between that force and price movements to predict the likely next steps of the market or the direction of the main capital, we grasp the essence of market dynamics. In this bull-bear game, we follow the stronger forces because no one can determine what the next move will be. However, I believe that this is more artistic than mere superficial chart analysis; perhaps that is all there is to it. At the very least, we can likely understand what the main capital is doing. If you cannot read the relationship between volume and price, your mindset and emotions may fluctuate with the superficial candlestick chart's ups and downs, leaving you feeling lost, like a blind person walking. This can lead to difficulties in holding onto trades even when you are directionally correct, resulting in no profits!
If you can understand the relationship between volume and price, you can try to apply it. For example, if you are the main force, how would you hunt for liquidity? But this is not wishful thinking; it is about applying the current market conditions to your trading decisions. This is the analytical thought process behind technical analysis and predicting market trends! It is not just about simply drawing charts or lines to know whether the price will rise or fall! A good trading method only needs to be copied and improved; everything else is unnecessary!
The above views and insights belong to personal trading summaries, shared with my brothers!$BNB
