BTC TREND ANALYSIS (H4)
1. Overall trend: BEARISH – currently in a technical retracement
The structural chain consists of:
Price continuously making lower highs and lower lows,
This confirms that the main trend is still downtrend on H4.
The current retracement is just a pullback, not enough signals for a reversal.
2. Supply zone touched but not broken the red zones (supply) around ~95K – 100K – 110K – 115K.
Price was strongly rejected and plummeted → this is a signal that sellers still control.
This reinforces the downtrend.
3. Important demand zone $BTC around 78K – 82K
This is the zone:
Strong volume entering
Many previous price reactions
Near the nearest BoS reduction zone
If BTC falls here, there is a high probability of a large reaction (strong pullback).
Right at the current price position (87.4K):
--Retracement signal – but weak
Bullish structure has not formed:
No clear bullish BoS
Small bullish CHoCH, did not break the important high
Weak retracement volume
→ High probability is just a retracement in a downtrend.
3. Three possible scenarios
🔻 Scenario 1: Main trend – high probability
BTC retraces up but does not break the trendline → continues to drop to the liquidity zone of 80K – 82K.
🔺 Scenario 2: Retraces deeper before dropping
BTC may test the upper supply zones again:
91K – 93K
Then continue to a new low. 7x 6x 5x
Scenario 3: Reversal (currently lowest probability)
Only occurs when:
Creates a true bullish BoS in the zone of 94K – 97K
Closes H4 candles above this zone with strong volume
If not fulfilling the above conditions → the trend remains bearish.
⭐ SUMMARY$BTC
➤ Main trend: Bearish
➤ Technical retracement (pullback)
➤ Easy price attraction points: 78K – 82K
➤ No reversal signals seen
