November Summary of Big Cake
This month's big cake has dropped sharply and been repaired cautiously. From 116000, it fell all the way to 80600, almost swallowing the annual increase in one breath. However, because the drop was thorough, it laid the foundation for this wave of rebound with "repair".
The whole month can almost be divided into two parts: the first half of the month was a "panic waterfall," and the second half was a "calm repair." After touching 80600 on November 19, it began to stop falling and rebound, stabilizing above 91000 by the end of the month, completing the transition from "collapse" to "breathing".
However, the core driving force of this rebound still comes from short covering and emotional repair, rather than a trend reversal. Although EMA7 has risen above 90000, EMA30 is still firmly pressing above 95000. The distance between moving averages is too large, and the trading volume has not effectively increased, indicating that this is just a technical repair, not a primary rising segment.
BOLL's middle track is slowly pressing down to 91900, and the daily K-line has repeatedly failed to break through, indicating that there is still strong resistance above. In the short term, the rebound is indeed strong, but overall it still operates under a bearish structure. In other words, this is a "rebound during a decline," not an "increase after a rebound."
I have been waiting for the "second bottom test," and it seems that although the price has not retested the 80,000 range, the structure has not ruled out this possibility. Once 90500 or 89500 is lost, it is possible to test the 85000–87000 range again, and that will be the real moment for bottom building.
The fear index fell to a monthly low of 10, and even if it rebounds to 20 this week, it is still in the "panic zone." The market's calm is not a return of confidence, but a decline in trading willingness. This means that the main force is still observing, and retail investors are numb. With emotions not restored and trading volume not rebounding, this wave of rebound is destined to be "light and floating," without roots.
The key intervals are above 93000–94000 and below 90000–89500. The short-term rhythm is still mainly based on "range games." If it breaks through 94000 with volume, it can look towards 96500–98000; if it breaks below 90000 and volume increases under pressure, beware of the formal start of the "second bottom test."
The rebound is still just a rebound, and the bottom may not have truly been reached yet.
I am still waiting for that "true second test long shadow."
Before that, all upward movements are just tests.
