Ualifi Araújo
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Bullish
$BTC
The markets woke up today in decline, but it's just another exaggerated reaction...
We are heading towards the largest Structural Bullish catalyst, as today the Fed officially ends QT, something extremely important because it stops draining liquidity from the financial system, freezes the balance at $6.57 trillion, ceases to reduce positions, halting the monthly shrinkage. This, alone, changes the scenario...
In 2019, when the FED paused QT, we saw Cryptos rise quickly, and we had a good Bull season. Now, once again:
- Liquidity returns to the system
- M2 is starting to grow again
- Interest rates have already been cut (so far)
There is an expectation of more cuts on December 10th, and ONCE AGAIN we are seeing a pullback before that, but as we get closer, we should have a pre-announcement rally; it’s the same pattern as in the last times.
Even though we went lower and temporarily lost $88K, nothing changes and a pre-cut recovery ($98K) is the most likely.
The collapse of the yen Carry Trade affected between $ 3,4 and $20 trillion globally and forced violent liquidations in all markets, contributing greatly to the aggressive decline of BTC and Altcoins; we saw outflows of $ 3,45B from the ETFs, and volatility is extreme. However...
While prices were falling, whales bought 375,000 BTC, and miners drastically reduced their sales, meaning the fall was mechanical and not structural.
The interest from major buyers is evident, and they are buying the panic and will continue to do so.
Eyes are not just on Powell in December; there are several catalysts here, like the Bank of Japan on December 18th, and if the BoJ PAUSES, liquidity returns and the Crypto market rises quickly.
Since we reached the local bottom at $80.5K, we are technically forming support for a larger upward movement, and this will become clear in December.
The macro narrative is aligned with a Bull cycle, especially with Trump indicating the Hasset for the FED, and we all know what comes next.
An Altseason is coming!
The markets woke up today in decline, but it's just another exaggerated reaction...
We are heading towards the largest Structural Bullish catalyst, as today the Fed officially ends QT, something extremely important because it stops draining liquidity from the financial system, freezes the balance at $6.57 trillion, ceases to reduce positions, halting the monthly shrinkage. This, alone, changes the scenario...
In 2019, when the FED paused QT, we saw Cryptos rise quickly, and we had a good Bull season. Now, once again:
- Liquidity returns to the system
- M2 is starting to grow again
- Interest rates have already been cut (so far)
There is an expectation of more cuts on December 10th, and ONCE AGAIN we are seeing a pullback before that, but as we get closer, we should have a pre-announcement rally; it’s the same pattern as in the last times.
Even though we went lower and temporarily lost $88K, nothing changes and a pre-cut recovery ($98K) is the most likely.
The collapse of the yen Carry Trade affected between $ 3,4 and $20 trillion globally and forced violent liquidations in all markets, contributing greatly to the aggressive decline of BTC and Altcoins; we saw outflows of $ 3,45B from the ETFs, and volatility is extreme. However...
While prices were falling, whales bought 375,000 BTC, and miners drastically reduced their sales, meaning the fall was mechanical and not structural.
The interest from major buyers is evident, and they are buying the panic and will continue to do so.
Eyes are not just on Powell in December; there are several catalysts here, like the Bank of Japan on December 18th, and if the BoJ PAUSES, liquidity returns and the Crypto market rises quickly.
Since we reached the local bottom at $80.5K, we are technically forming support for a larger upward movement, and this will become clear in December.
The macro narrative is aligned with a Bull cycle, especially with Trump indicating the Hasset for the FED, and we all know what comes next.
An Altseason is coming!
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