$MU $SNDK $SKHYNIX Jensen Huang is calling out 'memory shortage until next year'! After the crash of Micron and SK Hynix, is it time to scoop up the dip?
Conclusion: Long-term logic remains strong, but short-term has 'passive sell-off landmines'.
Why wait (the fatal details):
1. Fundamentals are solid: Jensen Huang's original words 'the second half will far exceed the first half, memory is the biggest bottleneck', Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are both calling for DRAM shortages to last 2-3 years, this isn't a short-term story.
2. But there's a 'forced sell-off' on Monday: Hong Kong's leveraged product 'Southern Double Long SK Hynix' must sell about 2 million shares of SK Hynix at market open on Monday due to last week's crash, which is about 40% of a normal day's trading volume. This is passive, mechanical dumping, unrelated to the fundamentals.
3. Just dropped last week: SK Hynix fell 10% in a single day, losing $57 billion in market cap, and sentiment was already shaky. The passive sell-off on Monday could trigger a chain reaction.
What should traders do:
· Bottom-fishing strategy: Wait for Monday's passive sell-off to hit a low before buying back in. Targeting the $90-95 billion market cap area for SK Hynix, and looking at the panic low before the earnings report (June 24) for Micron.
· Absolutely don’t chase at the open: Monday's sell-off is 'sell no matter what price', if you jump in now, you're just picking up the bags.
· In short: The storage shortage is real, but the passive dump on Monday is also real.
# Nasdaq down 4.18%, marking the largest single-day drop in over a year
Conclusion: Long-term logic remains strong, but short-term has 'passive sell-off landmines'.
Why wait (the fatal details):
1. Fundamentals are solid: Jensen Huang's original words 'the second half will far exceed the first half, memory is the biggest bottleneck', Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are both calling for DRAM shortages to last 2-3 years, this isn't a short-term story.
2. But there's a 'forced sell-off' on Monday: Hong Kong's leveraged product 'Southern Double Long SK Hynix' must sell about 2 million shares of SK Hynix at market open on Monday due to last week's crash, which is about 40% of a normal day's trading volume. This is passive, mechanical dumping, unrelated to the fundamentals.
3. Just dropped last week: SK Hynix fell 10% in a single day, losing $57 billion in market cap, and sentiment was already shaky. The passive sell-off on Monday could trigger a chain reaction.
What should traders do:
· Bottom-fishing strategy: Wait for Monday's passive sell-off to hit a low before buying back in. Targeting the $90-95 billion market cap area for SK Hynix, and looking at the panic low before the earnings report (June 24) for Micron.
· Absolutely don’t chase at the open: Monday's sell-off is 'sell no matter what price', if you jump in now, you're just picking up the bags.
· In short: The storage shortage is real, but the passive dump on Monday is also real.
# Nasdaq down 4.18%, marking the largest single-day drop in over a year