Update Time: 2025-12-02 16:46 (Beijing Time)
📌 Core Conclusions
The current market is in a fluctuating consolidation pattern, with the major trend still leaning towards bearish, but there is a short-term minor rebound. Prices are in the middle range, not approaching key support or resistance levels, lacking clear entry signals. It is recommended to continue observing and wait for further clarity in market direction.
🔍 Detailed Analysis
1. Major Trend Environment (Daily and above)
Long-term Trend: Weekly prices are above the key moving average (EMA144), but long-term moving average data is incomplete, so trend judgment should be cautious.
Daily Structure:
Key Support: 80600 (strong support, validated 14 times), 74457 (weak support).
Key Resistance: 98115, 101516, 102614 (all strong resistance, tested multiple times).
Moving Average System: Prices have dropped below the Vegas channel (EMA144/576), with a bearish alignment, indicating a mid to long-term bearish pattern.
Capital Flow: OBV (On-Balance Volume) is declining, order flow shows selling pressure dominating (62.1%), but price increases are accompanied by volume, caution is needed for the risk of false breakouts during 'passive rises'.
Comprehensive Judgment: The daily chart is still in a bearish trend, but the price has not broken below the strong support at 80600, the overall structure is 'range-bound and slightly weak'.
2. Short to Medium Term Trend (4 hours and below)
Price Location: Current price 86409, in the lower middle of the recent range (high 91934, low 84612), closer to the lower end of the range.
Short-term Trend: The 15-minute and 5-minute levels show signs of rebound, but this is a technical pullback within a downtrend, not a trend reversal.
Market Sentiment: Daily trading volume is shrinking, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market; small-scale order flow is neutral, with no strong directional signals.
3. Trend Change Signal Assessment
Currently, there are no confirmed signals of key support/resistance breakthroughs, moving average system reversals, or price-volume divergences indicating a trend change.
The comprehensive score for trend change is below 3 (out of 5), indicating that the market has not formed a clear turning momentum, and is currently mainly in a range-bound state.
⚡ Operation Suggestions
Mainly Observing: Prices are in the middle area, with key levels far apart; whether going long or short, setting stop losses is difficult and the risk-reward ratio is not ideal.
Potential Opportunities:
If the price rebounds to the upper resistance (near 91934 or 98115) and shows signs of stagnation, consider light short positions.
If the price pulls back to the strong support at 80600 and stabilizes, accompanied by an increase in volume, consider light long positions.
Risk Warning: Current counter-trend operations carry high risks, and clearer signal confirmations are needed.
✅ Summary
The market is in a 'transitional' phase, with a bearish overall trend and weak rebounds at smaller levels, lacking sustained movements. Patience is needed to wait for the price to approach key levels or show clear trend change signals before taking action, avoiding blind entries.
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Disclaimer: The above analysis is only a sharing of market opinions and does not constitute investment advice. Trading carries risks; please make decisions cautiously.
