Recently, a noteworthy change occurred at CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange): the trading volume of Ether (ETH) futures has, for the first time, surpassed that of Bitcoin (BTC) futures.
This change is not a one-time event, but rather reflects the shifting market preferences, risk tolerance patterns, and direction of capital allocation.
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Trading momentum shifts to ETH: volatility instead attracts more participants
CME officials pointed out that the volatility of ETH options is currently significantly higher than that of BTC.
However, this volatility has not driven traders away; instead, it has become a source of attraction:
Greater short-term opportunities
More market arbitrage space
Higher leverage efficiency
An increase in trading volume does not simply represent speculation; it symbolizes capital choosing 'which asset is worth betting on'.
As ETH volatility increases, participation in futures trading also rises, promoting the expansion of the entire ETH derivatives market.
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The key turning point in July: open interest officially Flippening
The article mentions that the trading data from July is an important turning point:
Ether futures open interest has surpassed Bitcoin for the first time.
In the CME derivatives market, this is a clear signal of 'Flippening'.
Although BTC remains the main asset by transaction amount, capital is rapidly spreading to Ether derivatives.
In other words:
> Bitcoin remains a core asset, but market attention is increasingly being distributed evenly across Ethereum.
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Is ETH about to enter a 'Supercycle'?
CME Crypto executives raised a key question:
> Is this the beginning of ETH's long-term supercycle?
Or is it the 'catch-up rally' brought by short-term volatility?
If it is a short-term catch-up, then this flippening may just be the result of phase market sentiment.
But if capital gradually re-evaluates ETH's value, it may indicate that the underlying logic of the market is changing:
Ethereum's on-chain economic activity is more active
L2 ecosystem maturity
DeFi, RWA, gaming, and other application layer demands are stronger
Ethereum's role as a settlement layer is becoming clearer
For many industry funds, this type of derivatives data reflects deeper trends better than price.
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Market volatility and institutional positions being reduced
Recently, ETH, BTC, and the overall market prices have all faced selling pressure again.
Many analysts point out that the market's de-risking operations at the end of November are the main cause of volatility.
Some observers have noted:
> Monthly closing was not ideal, traders adjusted their positions immediately after the monthly close.
At the same time, companies holding ETH as an asset also face paper losses due to the price drop.
This represents a market entering a more challenging phase, but also shows that ETH is more volatile with more trading opportunities, thus making the derivatives market more active.
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What does this change reveal about the crypto market?
From trading volume and open interest flippening, three structural signals can be observed:
1. The financial attributes of ETH are being strengthened
It is no longer just fuel or a technical representative of on-chain activities, but an asset that can be traded by numerous financial institutions.
2. The derivatives market is a leading indicator
Futures volume often leads spot, revealing the main focus of attention.
3. Capital has not left the crypto market, but is choosing new main axes
From 'BTC as the only core'
Gradually shifting towards
'BTC and ETH are both core to the market,' and even ETH trading activity is beginning to dominate.
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In the end: more critical than price comparison is 'capital is watching who'
Bitcoin remains the market's value anchor, but ETH has officially overtaken in derivatives trading volume, indicating:
Traders' betting points
Institutional strategic layout
Capital flow from volatility arbitrage
Starting to concentrate on Ether.
This flippening does not indicate a weakening of BTC, but rather shows that the market structure is maturing:
Capital is no longer focused on a single direction, but is more broadly seeking the next 'core asset'.
Changes in the derivatives market often reveal trends earlier than price.
And as Ether's futures activities gradually replace Bitcoin, it means market participants are re-answering a question about the future:
> Will the next core asset dominating the crypto economic cycle be ETH?
Sometimes, the answer does not need to be shouted out.
Capital has long made decisions ahead of trading volumes.
