The end of the massacre?
50% of #bitcoin is "underwater", but history suggests the floor is near.
The crypto market just endured a brutal month, with #BTC plummeting 28%, from $82,000 to breaking the psychological barrier of $60,000.
This crash has painted a dramatic picture; more than half of Bitcoin's circulating supply (about 10 million BTC) is currently in the red, according to the latest report by research firm K33.
The "Floor Threshold": Historically, seeing over 50% of the supply at a loss only happens close to the lows of major bear markets. This is because the sell pressure from those who still had profits runs dry. The 50%-56% range has been the natural limit in previous crises.
The Historical Pattern (The recovery clock): In the bear markets of 2011, 2018, and 2022, Bitcoin bottomed out a month after crossing this 50% threshold.
The last "scare" before the rally: Vetle Lunde, head of research at K33, warns that before the launch usually comes a final capitulation (an additional drop of between 15% and 26%). However, the reward is high: one year after crossing this threshold, BTC has recorded gains between 69% and 359%.
Signs of extreme capitulation: The drop pushed the price towards the 200-week moving average (the sacred support of all cycles) and drove the Fear and Greed Index to an "extreme fear" level of 8. Additionally, record outflows from Bitcoin ETFs were reported.
Where did the money go?: According to Lunde, part of the capital has temporarily migrated to high-conviction and growth sectors, like the anticipated IPO of SpaceX, AI companies, and large-cap tech stocks.
#CryptoNews #SpaceX
$BTC
$QQQ
$SPCX
50% of #bitcoin is "underwater", but history suggests the floor is near.
The crypto market just endured a brutal month, with #BTC plummeting 28%, from $82,000 to breaking the psychological barrier of $60,000.
This crash has painted a dramatic picture; more than half of Bitcoin's circulating supply (about 10 million BTC) is currently in the red, according to the latest report by research firm K33.
The "Floor Threshold": Historically, seeing over 50% of the supply at a loss only happens close to the lows of major bear markets. This is because the sell pressure from those who still had profits runs dry. The 50%-56% range has been the natural limit in previous crises.
The Historical Pattern (The recovery clock): In the bear markets of 2011, 2018, and 2022, Bitcoin bottomed out a month after crossing this 50% threshold.
The last "scare" before the rally: Vetle Lunde, head of research at K33, warns that before the launch usually comes a final capitulation (an additional drop of between 15% and 26%). However, the reward is high: one year after crossing this threshold, BTC has recorded gains between 69% and 359%.
Signs of extreme capitulation: The drop pushed the price towards the 200-week moving average (the sacred support of all cycles) and drove the Fear and Greed Index to an "extreme fear" level of 8. Additionally, record outflows from Bitcoin ETFs were reported.
Where did the money go?: According to Lunde, part of the capital has temporarily migrated to high-conviction and growth sectors, like the anticipated IPO of SpaceX, AI companies, and large-cap tech stocks.
#CryptoNews #SpaceX
$BTC
$QQQ
$SPCX