Stop being fooled by those flashy indicators! The real tools that can help you make money in the crypto world are so simple that they can slap those who play with complex analyses in the face.
When I first entered the crypto world, I looked at the K-line like a fool.
Staring blankly — I get nervous when MACD turns, and I tremble when RSI exceeds a buy. What’s the result? Three years, a full three years! Not only did I lose all the hard-earned money I saved from my job, but I also racked up a mountain of online debt, even the aunt selling buns downstairs dares to look at me with pity.
1. Funding rate
1. Funding rate threshold
+0.10% → Extreme positive rate, a sign of the end of a bull market, start reducing positions mindlessly
+0.07% ~ 0.09% → High fever warning, gradually reduce positions, only leave base positions
+0.03% ~ 0.06% → Normally high, can continue to hold long positions but do not open new positions
0% ~ +0.02% → Healthy range, the most comfortable holding phase
-0.01% ~ -0.04% → Mild negative funding rate, best accumulation range (collecting money while making money)
≤ -0.05% → Extreme negative funding rate, mindlessly bottom fishing phase (he fully invested multiple times this year)
2.. The practical use of funding rates combined with other indicators
Positive funding rate 0.1% + OI hits a new high → Top exit signal (two precise top escapes in November 2025)
Positive funding rate 0.1% + long-short ratio > 3:1 → Must blow up bulls (liquidation countdown)
Negative funding rate + significant inflow into spot ETF → Strongest bottom (two bottom catches in March and October 2025)
Funding rate suddenly drops from +0.1% to +0.01% (within 8 hours) → Bulls collectively retreat, high probability of hitting the top
2. Unsettled contracts (OI)
1. Four golden rules of OI
(1) Price hits a new high, OI also hits a new high
This is the most typical 'clean trend.' Price and position size rise together, indicating that real funds are pushing.
Trend is healthy, positions can continue to be held, even increase positions with the trend.
(2) Price hits a new high, but OI obviously declines
Price has gone up, but position size has dropped, indicating that bulls are taking profits, and new funds have not followed in.
Typical top structure, need to quickly reduce positions or exit directly.
(3) Price drops significantly, but OI surges
In the process of decline, the position size surges, mostly due to forced openings caused by passive liquidations.
It is very easy to form a V reversal, a strong point for bulls to open positions.
(4) Price is sideways, OI continues to rise slowly
Price remains unchanged, but positions keep accumulating, indicating high-level quiet turnover or secretly building positions.
Main force is ready to push the next wave of market, can lurk in advance.
2. Specific numerical threshold for OI
BTC OI single-day increase ≥ 15% → Extreme volatility warning (there must be a big liquidation)
BTC OI single-day drop ≥ 12% → Bulls collectively run away, top confirmed
ETH OI broke through 8 billion USD + funding rate > 0.08% → Must blow up (two precise top escapes in November 2025)
OI has hit historical new highs for 3 consecutive days → Countdown to the end of the bull market (he calls it 'OI death three consecutive')
3. Coins and time frames that must be watched for OI
Time frame: 1 hour, 4 hours, daily OI bar chart (he pins these three charts right in the middle of the screen)
Key time point: 1 hour after US stock market close (OI changes are most real)
3. Long-short position ratio
Top accounts ratio ≥ 3.0 → Must blow up bulls, immediately reverse to short
Top accounts ratio ≥ 2.5 → At least reduce positions by 70%, prepare to run
Top accounts ratio ≤ 0.4 → Bears must blow up, full long position leverage maxed out
All net retail ratio ≥ 7.0 → Retail investors collectively go crazy, flash crash countdown
All net retail ratio ≤ 0.2 → Retail investors in despair, bottom signal
4. Order book distribution
1. Real protective buying vs False protective buying
Real protective buying: Continuous grid buy orders with an interval of 50–200 contracts (at least 5–8 levels), each level thickness > 300 contracts
False protective buying: A single large order (>2000 contracts) just sits there → 90% is just for show, will eventually withdraw
2. Real pressure vs False pressure
Real pressure: Continuous grid sell orders above 6–10 levels, each level 500–1000 contracts, price slowly pressed down
False pressure: A large number of sell orders are all placed at the same price → Prepare to withdraw at any time, baiting shorts
3. Real breakout vs False breakout
Real breakout: A 3–5% vacuum zone appears before eating orders (almost no orders), then slowly push through
False breakout: Large market orders directly sweep through (10 levels within a second), immediately followed by a pullback → 100% baiting longs/shorts
4. Must-run signal
Support level grid buy orders suddenly withdrawn by more than 70% → Must dump within 5–30 minutes
Resistance level grid sell orders suddenly disappear + a vacuum appears → Must pull within 5–30 minutes
5. Spot ETF capital inflow
Single-day net inflow > 500 million USD → Medium-short term bottom signal, mindlessly increase positions (total of BTC/ETH ETF)
Single-day net inflow > 1 billion USD → Super bottom, combined with negative funding rate full leverage
Continuous net outflow for 3 days > 300 million USD/day → Top warning, reduce positions by 50%+
While outflowing, price reaches a new high → False breakout, 100% baiting longs, immediately liquidate positions
BlackRock/Fidelity single ETF daily inflow > 200 million USD → Institutional accumulation confirmed, holdings remain unchanged
6. Fear and Greed Index
Extreme greed > 90 → Sends 'Jedi green lightsaber' emoji, a signal for the entire network to be bullish, reduce positions by 50%+ or short (end of the bull market)
Greed > 75 → High risk warning, gradually reduce positions, only leave base positions
Neutral 40~60 → Healthy range, can hold positions but do not chase highs
Extreme fear <10 → Mindlessly dollar-cost averaging/full positions long, hold with eyes closed (bear market bottom)
Fear <20 → Mild bottom signal, increase positions by 20~30%
7. MSTR stock price has a large volume at the bottom
MSTR is the leverage magnifier for BTC, large volume at the bottom = institutions are crazily accumulating at low levels, combined with macro events is the V reversal point. When Saylor releases cost tweets, be more alert—this is smart money telling you the bottom has been reached.
Iron rule threshold
Single-day trading volume > historical average 3 times → Bottom explosion volume confirmed, short-term bottom signal (triggered when MSTR stock price < 200 USD)
Bottom volume + stock price stands above the 20-day moving average → Medium-short term rebound probability 80%+, increase positions in BTC/ETH
Continuous 2 days of volume > 2 times the average + Saylor tweets → Super bottom, combined with negative funding rate full positions
Volume increases but price does not break below previous lows → False dump, 100% baiting shorts, immediately reverse to long
(Most situations need to be viewed in combination)
Trading coins is about repeating simple tasks, consistently using one method over a long time, mastering it, trading coins can also be like other industries, with practice making perfect, making decisions without hesitation.
This year is also my seventh year of trading coins, starting with 10,000, now supporting my family through trading! I can say that I have used 80% of the methods and techniques in the market. If you want to treat trading coins as a second career to support your family, sometimes listening more and observing more will reveal things beyond your understanding, at least it can save you 5 years of detours!
Follow me @慢慢赢_实盘带单 Many souls are lost on the crypto road, only those with fate will cross
