Current bias: Leaning bullish (60-65% probability of a higher high within 24-48 hours), with the price now at ~$89,600 (up ~1.2% from yesterday's close of ~$88,500, according to CoinMarketCap data). Yesterday was slow sideways (range $88k–$90k, low vol ~2.5%), aligned with low jobless claims (191k, the lowest since 2022) which pressured Fed rate cut expectations—but mixed data (Factory Orders +0.2% MoM Oct, ISM PMI 48.2 contraction) kept DXY at 105.5, delaying BTC momentum. Today PCE (release at 22:30 WIB, core MoM expectation 0.2%, YoY 2.7%) is the pivot: If actual ≤0.1% MoM, "bad news = good news" → DXY dump → risk-on to $91k+.
Main reason:
MACD daily holds bullish crossover (histogram +0.12, divergence from yesterday's low of $86k), with net CVD +5% on Binance perpetual this morning. Jobless claims 191k (down 27k, lowest >3 years per DOL & Reuters) strong labor signal → hawkish Fed, but contradicts with ISM PMI 48.2 (9th month contraction, per ISM report) & Factory Orders $586.7B (+0.2% MoM Oct, slight rebound per Census). This mixed signal made BTC "slow" yesterday, but oversold (RSI 42) ready to bounce.
PBOC continues ample injection: Net +100B Yuan (~$14B) via MLF Nov (total injection 1T Yuan, withdraw 900B, per PBOC statement), plus +50B via bond trading (Caixin). Not a "stop report"—ongoing liquidity support, long-biased for risk assets like BTC in the Asia session.
BlackRock IBIT ETF inflows mixed: +$120M Dec 3 (Farside), but outflow streak $2.7B in the last 5 weeks (Bloomberg), institutional caution signal year-end. If PCE is cool, inflows could flip positive again. Consensus (CoinCodex) target $91,200 today, Fear & Greed 28 (Fear).
Time zone & scenario (WIB)
07:00–15:00 → Potential continuation green (Asia + London). Target $90.5k–$91.2k if volume >1.1x average; long entry on dip $89k.
15:00–17:00 → Overlap, often choppy. Ranging $89k–$90k; reduce exposure by 30% to avoid fakeout pre-NY.
17:00–22:30 → Pre-PCE consolidation. Swing $89.5k–$91k; watch positioning.
22:30–00:00 → High vol post-PCE. If core MoM ≤0.1% → break above $92k+ realistic (DXY dump, Unmicu up risk-on signal); if ≥0.3% → test $88k (hawkish). Spike 5-10 minutes post-release key.
00:00–04:00 → Low liquidity, potential institutional add. Hold partial if post-PCE is green, close 60% before 01:00 WIB.
04:00–07:00 → Daily close prep, ranging. Avoid new entries unless close above $90k.
Invalidation level (mandatory)
Daily close below **$88,500** (yesterday's low + 38.2% daily Fib) → flip to neutral/bearish, cut all long and reassess at $87.5k.
Intraday drop to $88k → exit immediately, bullish probability drops to <50%.
Current risk/reward is 1:2.4 if entry at $89.5k–$89.8k (stop $88.5k, target $92k). I hold 30% of normal size (long from $88.8k yesterday), the rest wait for post-PCE confirmation. Mixed data yesterday made it slow, but PCE is a potential catalyst—discipline, no force trade.
$BTC Trade safe.
