Today, I was digging through the order book data and found a story that tells a completely different tale from the market's panic.
Last week, when BTC dropped to $59,000, there was a lot of wailing in the market. But now, looking at the on-chain data, buyers have actually been quietly entering the scene. The order book shows that since last Friday's bottom, the bid-ask ratio has consistently been positive at 0.05. This indicates that there are more active buy orders than sell orders, albeit not by a large margin, but the direction is clear.
What's even more noteworthy is the CVD data. Small-volume buyers have net bought $53 million and $157 million, respectively. Meanwhile, the big players who were previously dumping have reduced their net selling pressure by a whopping $900 million. To put it simply: retail investors are buying, and the whales have stopped dumping.
The technicals are also aligning. On the 4-hour chart, there's an RSI divergence; the price made a new low while RSI didn’t follow, which is a classic sign of waning momentum. The current 4-hour RSI is back at 55, which is neutral to bullish. The MACD histogram has turned positive at +98, with the fast line crossing above the signal line, indicating that short-term momentum is recovering. The daily RSI is still around 33, suggesting there’s still room for movement on the mid-term.
The funding rate is only 0.0054%, which is very healthy. This is not a rebound propped up by leverage; it's genuine spot buying coming in. This is crucial, as a rise under low funding rates is far more reliable than one under high rates.
But don’t rush to celebrate. $64,000 is the first resistance level, and beyond that, there's $66,000, which was previously a support turned resistance. One analyst drew an ascending triangle with a target pointing to a liquidity gap between $67,500 and $70,500. However, ahead of the weekend, bullish positions are clearly piling up, with 237 long positions vs. 128 short positions. Historically, weekend profit-taking often interrupts such accumulation.
Additionally, around $64,600, there's a concentration of $2.68 billion in short liquidations. If the price can reach this level, it might trigger a short squeeze. But this requires volume support; currently, the 24-hour trading volume is below $1 billion, showing weak volume.
My judgment is: a bottom structure is forming, and demand-side data is more optimistic than the price itself. However, the range between $64K and $66K is the inflection point for bulls and bears; a breakout is needed for a real trend. Right now, this position feels more like the calm before the storm; it’s not that there’s no wind, it’s just that the wind hasn’t arrived yet.
Last week, when BTC dropped to $59,000, there was a lot of wailing in the market. But now, looking at the on-chain data, buyers have actually been quietly entering the scene. The order book shows that since last Friday's bottom, the bid-ask ratio has consistently been positive at 0.05. This indicates that there are more active buy orders than sell orders, albeit not by a large margin, but the direction is clear.
What's even more noteworthy is the CVD data. Small-volume buyers have net bought $53 million and $157 million, respectively. Meanwhile, the big players who were previously dumping have reduced their net selling pressure by a whopping $900 million. To put it simply: retail investors are buying, and the whales have stopped dumping.
The technicals are also aligning. On the 4-hour chart, there's an RSI divergence; the price made a new low while RSI didn’t follow, which is a classic sign of waning momentum. The current 4-hour RSI is back at 55, which is neutral to bullish. The MACD histogram has turned positive at +98, with the fast line crossing above the signal line, indicating that short-term momentum is recovering. The daily RSI is still around 33, suggesting there’s still room for movement on the mid-term.
The funding rate is only 0.0054%, which is very healthy. This is not a rebound propped up by leverage; it's genuine spot buying coming in. This is crucial, as a rise under low funding rates is far more reliable than one under high rates.
But don’t rush to celebrate. $64,000 is the first resistance level, and beyond that, there's $66,000, which was previously a support turned resistance. One analyst drew an ascending triangle with a target pointing to a liquidity gap between $67,500 and $70,500. However, ahead of the weekend, bullish positions are clearly piling up, with 237 long positions vs. 128 short positions. Historically, weekend profit-taking often interrupts such accumulation.
Additionally, around $64,600, there's a concentration of $2.68 billion in short liquidations. If the price can reach this level, it might trigger a short squeeze. But this requires volume support; currently, the 24-hour trading volume is below $1 billion, showing weak volume.
My judgment is: a bottom structure is forming, and demand-side data is more optimistic than the price itself. However, the range between $64K and $66K is the inflection point for bulls and bears; a breakout is needed for a real trend. Right now, this position feels more like the calm before the storm; it’s not that there’s no wind, it’s just that the wind hasn’t arrived yet.