In my opinion, BofA's analysis is credible because markets sometimes tend to price in the positive effects of a geopolitical deal too quickly. Even if a deal between the U.S. and Iran could ease some tensions and promote better stability in oil supply, it doesn’t automatically guarantee a sustained drop in energy prices.

If oil stays at relatively high levels or starts climbing again, that could fuel global inflation. In this scenario, the U.S. Federal Reserve might be forced to keep rates elevated for longer, or even consider additional hikes to tame inflationary pressures.

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