Many people think that once rate cuts are implemented, they can feel at ease, but what truly determines market direction is the speech that follows the rate cut.
This rate cut seems more like an action 'forced out' by data and the environment, rather than a loosening that Powell is willingly releasing. He has previously emphasized that he is 'not inclined to cut rates', indicating that the 3:30 speech is the core variable.
My judgment is: #美联储重启降息步伐
Powell is very likely to reiterate a hawkish tone in his speech, suggesting a pause in rate cuts in the future.
This will directly impact market sentiment and may trigger a rapid adjustment in the short term.
Why? Because after the rate cut, interest rates will return to a neutral level of 3.5%, which is close to historical norms, and there is no necessity to continue suppressing the economy. The reality is:
• Inflation remains stubbornly around 3%, relatively high;
• The U.S. economy is resilient, and the unemployment rate has not shown significant weakness.
In other words, the Federal Reserve has no reason to continue easing, which is completely consistent with Powell's previous statements.
Under this macro logic, I think: #加密市场观察
Interest rate cuts implemented → Short-term market window opens → Entering a phase of adjustment
In terms of strategy: #比特币VS代币化黄金
• Aggressors: Positioning medium to long-term short positions on rebounds, leverage needs to be controlled steadily, do not bet on short-term fluctuations.
• Steady individuals: Maintain a wait-and-see approach, waiting for the deep correction that may occur next year before making bottom-fishing investments.
But this is not the end of the world, but a transition.
By the second half of next year, as the policy transition and the expectation of the Trump team taking office strengthen, the U.S. is likely to push for aggressive easing, and liquidity will flow back into the market, marking the beginning of a new cycle.
The next six months will be a 'dark accumulation period' before the bull market explodes.
The real opportunity is not now, but on the eve of the turning point.
Stay calm, stick to the strategy, and maintain clear judgment.
Cycles will not disappoint those who are prepared in advance.
