Last Friday, the U.S. stock market showed a 'divergent picture': the S&P 500 index rose slightly by 0.2%, nearing a historical high, but the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury rose to 4.14%, marking the worst weekly performance since April. Sydney IG Markets analyst Tony Sycamore pointed out that under the triple support of potential fiscal stimulus from the Trump administration, strong economic growth, and the resurgence of global inflation, U.S. Treasury yields may further rise to 4.5%. If this is realized quickly in the short term, it could impact the stock market, a scenario more likely to unfold in 2026.
This week, the global financial markets will welcome a 'super week': the United States will conduct auctions for 3-year, 10-year, and 30-year Treasuries ahead of the December 10 Federal Reserve decision to avoid complications. Key data such as JOLTS job openings and initial unemployment claims will be released successively; the Federal Reserve is highly likely to implement a 25 basis point rate cut (which has been fully priced in by the market), with the core focus being whether it will signal a 'hawkish rate cut'. Central banks in Canada, Switzerland, Australia, and other countries are expected to maintain interest rates. Barclays warns that the interest rate path in 2026 is highly uncertain due to tariffs, labor market conditions, and economic growth rates, while sustained inflation may push up market premiums; veteran Wall Street strategist Ed Yardeni suggests reducing holdings in the 'seven giants' tech stocks and shifting to other components of the S&P 500 to cope with structural changes in profit growth.
On the geopolitical and economic front, the escalating military tension between Japan and China raises concerns—Chinese warplanes have activated fire control radar against Japanese military aircraft for the first time, with both sides protesting, leading to a simultaneous rise in defense stocks of both countries. In the Chinese market, the CSI 300 index rose over 1%, and exports in November grew by 5.9% year-on-year, significantly exceeding expectations, injecting strong momentum into the economy; however, there are mixed signals from the EU, with French President Macron warning that if the trade imbalance between China and Europe continues, the EU may take 'tough measures,' including tariffs.
Japan's economy adds gloom: the revised GDP for the third quarter shows a decline, coupled with uncertainties in Japan-China relations, complicating the Bank of Japan's policy meeting next week. However, the market generally expects that its gradual rate hike path will not change. Globally, central banks in Australia, Brazil, the Philippines, and several other countries will announce interest rate decisions this week, amid rising inflation pressures. The monetary policy path for 2026 is being reassessed by the market, with Bloomberg's strategy team predicting continued pressure on the global bond market, and Japanese government bonds facing a tense auction environment.
Commodity market highlights emerge: silver fluctuates near record highs, gold strengthens significantly, with core support stemming from the Chinese central bank's continuous increase in gold reserves for the 13th consecutive month; oil prices remain stable, influenced by India's ongoing procurement of Russian oil and the Russia-Ukraine situation.
