In the past 24 hours, the global market has experienced a rare 'double inflection point'! On one hand, the months-long Middle East crisis has suddenly cooled— the US and Iran have signed a ceasefire memorandum, the Strait of Hormuz is gearing up to resume navigation, and the risk premium in global supply chains and energy markets is being rapidly pulled back; on the other hand, the World Cup frenzy is driving historic traffic in prediction markets, with Polymarket hitting record high fee revenues, but this has simultaneously attracted intense scrutiny from US regulators.
Local geopolitics is entering a reconciliation phase, and capital is starting to embrace risk again; however, when financial innovation brushes against the boundaries of power, the regulatory iron curtain falls. Two seemingly unrelated, yet intrinsically linked, narratives—risk is fading, but the power struggle is escalating.
🧱 Geopolitical chess game: A century-defying breakthrough—yet uncertainty remains.
① The US and Iran sign a memorandum of understanding on the ceasefire
The US and Iran formally signed a memorandum of understanding to end the war. The key terms are set:
· The Strait of Hormuz will fully resume normal navigation this Friday (June 19);
· The US military simultaneously lifts the maritime blockade; negotiations on the nuclear issue begin immediately thereafter.
· Iran has sent a letter to the UN Security Council, confirming a permanent ceasefire and committing to begin comprehensive negotiations within 60 days;
· 21 Arab and Islamic countries jointly released welcoming statements.
Variables cannot be ignored:
Israel has publicly stated that it is not bound by the agreement and refuses to withdraw its troops from southern Lebanon;
Iranian Fars News Agency reveals that Tehran, at the last moment, insisted on including the "sovereignty clause over the Strait of Hormuz between Iran and Oman," and plans to levy a "maritime service fee" on transiting vessels.
The reconciliation framework is already in place, but implementation friction will be a long-term game.
② Ukraine formally begins accession talks. Ukraine kicked off the first stage of EU accession negotiations in Luxembourg. Meanwhile, Russia’s foreign minister Lavrov sent a message to Washington, saying Moscow is waiting for US envoy Kushner, sent by Trump, to visit in order to clarify the timeline for the US to fulfill the Anchorage commitments.
🧘 Mind-learning commentary: Geopolitical "reconciliation" and "variables" are two sides of the same coin in a contest of interests. Trends are defined by strength; details are shaped by interests.
💹 Capital mapping: Geopolitical risks clear out, triggering a global reshuffle of assets.
The US-Iran ceasefire agreement triggers expectations of global supply-chain repair, and capital markets enter a historic "geopolitical risk-out" rally.
📈 US stocks: All three major indices surged across the board. Technology and high-energy-consumption sectors led the gains. Nasdaq +3.07%, S&P 500 +1.65%, Dow +0.92%; 🇯🇵 Japan stocks: Nikkei 225 rose 4.99%, closing above 69,317.50 points for the first time in history, marking the second-largest single-day point gain ever. The TOPIX also climbed 3.03%.
🛢️ Crude oil: A cliff-like plunge, hitting a three-month low; WTI closed at $79.71, Brent at $82.56;
🥇 Gold: Gold spikes against the tide; the battle between bulls and bears intensifies;
💵 FX: Mixed strength and rotation focus on the "central bank super week". The US dollar dips; the yen and the euro rebound; non-USD currencies edge higher;
🧘 Mind-learning commentary: "A dragon in the sky—regret."
Geopolitical peace has ignited a capital frenzy. SpaceX’s record IPO and OpenAI’s impending listing mark the end of Wall Street’s "era of stock scarcity"—when supply is abundant, valuation ceilings fall accordingly. Add strong rate-hike expectations from the Bank of Japan, which trigger pressure from arbitrage unwinds. Stay clear-headed amid the frenzy and hold the right cognition for investing and wealth management.
💸 Web3 roundup: Risk appetite has been fully restored; the predicted sectors are a mix of ice and fire
Over the past 24 hours, the crypto market saw a one-way surge across the board. The total market value jumped by more than $212 billion in a single day, and total market cap rebounded to $3.28 trillion. Trading volumes for BTC/ETH expanded in sync, and capital in mid- and small-cap segments accelerated rotation.
BTC: Back above the $67,000 level. Institutions continue accumulating, and MicroStrategy (MicroStrategy) once again disclosed that it invested $100 million to add to its BTC holdings.
ETH: Surged sharply, holding the 1,700 level, leading the overall market as the flagship stock.
① Prediction markets: Revenue skyrockets and strong regulatory fists arrive
The 2026 World Cup between the US, Canada, and Mexico is in full swing. Polymarket’s daily fee revenue has surged to $1.18 million, surpassing Hyperliquid—the leading decentralized perpetual trading platform—for the first time.
The massive wealth effect immediately drew attention from Washington:
· The US Senate is pushing hard for the (Prediction Markets Act), aiming to clearly prohibit wagering on military actions;
· The House Armed Services Committee goes after the NDAA draft, proposing to prohibit military uniformed and civilian personnel involved in sensitive military intelligence from participating in betting;
· Although Polymarket voluntarily handed over nearly a hundred addresses suspected of using insider information to place bets to law-enforcement authorities, policy risk remains intensely elevated.
🧘 Mind-learning commentary: The scale of the crypto market is still relatively tiny compared with global capital markets. Asset tokenization on-chain and mechanism innovation are the trend, but what governments want is "absolute controllability," and what Wall Street wants is "profit and market control power"—this is the harsh reality the crypto space must face.
🧘 Closing words:
The US-Iran ceasefire means a pullback in stage-by-stage macro risks globally.
Oil tankers pass through the Strait of Hormuz again, and funds flow back toward technology and risk assets. The market seems to have finally welcomed long-lost clear skies. But another, deeper game is unfolding.
The World Cup heats up prediction markets, proving that the combination of on-chain assetization, information pricing, and global liquidity has enormous commercial value. Meanwhile, Washington’s rapid launch of regulation once again proves a reality: any financial innovation—once it touches pricing power and influence—inevitably comes into the realm of national power.
In the real competition ahead, perhaps it’s no longer a fight over technical route, but a redistribution of pricing power, regulatory power, and capital-control power.
The market always chases wealth, but history is often written by power.
Stay clear-headed amid the revelry, and see the boundaries within the trend.
This may be more important than judging the next candlestick.
📌 LaoYao（@LaoYao_crypto ） uses the mind-learning school as a blade, slicing open the true nature of power deep within the crypto world.