For the past decade, Bitcoin players have had a steadfast belief: 'Halving means skyrocketing.' Every four years, the output is cut in half, and the scarcity of supply drives prices to the moon—this has almost become the golden rule of the crypto world.
But today, the world's largest cryptocurrency asset management firm Grayscale has given a disruptive judgment: the pattern that shaped Bitcoin's early history is failing.
Why?
Grayscale pointed out two fundamental shifts:
First, it's a mathematical problem.
As over 90% of Bitcoin has been mined, each halving results in new coins accounting for an increasingly smaller percentage of the total supply. The early halvings were a 'sudden reduction in supply,' while today's halvings feel more like a 'gentle tightening.' The impact is naturally not what it used to be.
Secondly, it is the players that have changed.
The dominant force in the market is no longer the passionate retail investors of 2013 and 2017. Institutional capital is becoming the new pricing core.
This directly changes the face of the market:
· Unlike the 'violent surges' of the past, the recent rise is more controllable;
· The subsequent 30% pullback is no longer an apocalyptic collapse, but more like a typical 'healthy correction' in traditional financial markets.
So today, what determines the trend of Bitcoin is no longer a single halving clock, but a series of more complex and more 'traditional' factors:
· Global interest rate expectations (every glance from the Federal Reserve affects the market);
· The cryptocurrency regulatory framework promoted by the two parties in the United States (moving from the 'wild west' to a compliance battleground);
· The penetration of Bitcoin in institutional asset allocation (from speculative tool to balance sheet option).
In summary: Bitcoin is undergoing 'demystification', accelerating its integration into the global mainstream financial system.
This means that the frenzied boom and bust may decrease, but volatility remains; the narrative logic shifts from 'scarcity story' to 'value storage and financial infrastructure' story. This is good for the long-term health of the market, but it also requires every participant to upgrade their cognition - to understand the more complex game with a broader perspective.
This is the end of an era and the beginning of a larger one.
Do you feel it? Are you more at ease, or do you feel like you've lost the initial excitement? Feel free to leave your thoughts in the comments.
