Recently, there has been a lot of tension in the market regarding the KITE token. What everyone is particularly worried about is the several large-scale token unlocks that may occur in the next two to three years. They fear that if institutional investors and teams sell off in bulk, the price could drop significantly. Especially concerning are those early investors who unlocked tokens at a very low cost; even a slight movement in the market could easily unleash a 'flood'.
That said, many people often think that for projects like KITE, unlocking tokens means crashing the market, but the reality is far more complex and nuanced. Recently, while reviewing blockchain data, I actually came across an early-stage institutional wallet address that exhibited very strange behavior during small unlocks in the past—not a full sell-off, but rather a pattern of selling and accumulating, somewhat like quietly collecting shares before acting again when the market reaches a critical point. This method confirms that institutional investors are much more astute than ordinary retail investors; the impact of unlocking is not just about the new tokens coming online but also includes psychological fluctuations.
We need to analyze this risk clearly, starting with the supply mechanism of the KITE token. After KITE is issued, how much is allocated to whom and when it is unlocked involves early investors, development teams, ecological funds, and community member rewards. Each party's tactics and psychology are completely different. Some institutions choose not to sell immediately after small unlocks; instead, they opt to accumulate first and find market chips. Most selling points are chosen very accurately through on-chain wallet circulation, reallocating at a low price to avoid the negative impact of violent sell-offs on their next layout. This also indicates that when the next major unlock arrives, not only will the selling pressure increase, but the tactics of capital games will likely be more varied. To understand this, one must remain vigilant.
Be specific about the time points. There are a few key points that can be checked now, and you need to remember them. First, at the end of March 2026, there will be a batch of holdings from seed round investors unlocked, and the quantity is not small. Moreover, these people's cost is very low, and the potential selling pressure will definitely not be light. They often have more information than we do and operate more professionally. Once there are large transfers to exchanges from wallets, market sentiment will quickly stir up. Secondly, it will be mid-June 2026, when it's the turn of some developers and core contributors to get their unlocked shares. Although individual wallets are small, there are many people, which easily leads to fragmented selling pressure. The total amount of each transaction will also make the market quite uneasy.
However, if you think you can predict price movements solely based on the unlock volume, that is too linear a way of thinking. Sometimes the actual sell-off is not much, but the market panics, causing prices to drop along with it. You need to keep an eye on those active wallets with small scattered transactions; this gentle drizzle can affect the overall trend. In addition, KITE has made progress in cross-chain bridges and data availability over the past two years, but if positive news does not come out by then, it will still be very difficult to digest the sudden unlock pressure in the short term. If it is not strong enough, it can easily lead to doubts.
The unlocking wave is not something you can casually endure; you must do your homework in advance and dig deep into the intentions of the unlock participants. Don't rely solely on surface data; learn to observe abnormal on-chain transfers, wallet movements, and which major players are quietly changing positions. In investment, the information gap is actually the profit gap. Only by understanding these mechanisms can you be stable. As for whether you should follow the trend to buy or sell, or which pitfalls to be wary of, each person must research more on their own and not just listen to me.
Lastly, a reminder: the crypto space is deep and the market is unpredictable. The above are just my personal ramblings, absolutely no strong recommendations or investment advice. If you want to participate, you must look into it yourself, and ask more experienced investors.
