📅 Time: December 8, 2025
📊 Current HS Index: 32.098
📉 Key Technical Pattern: Break below MA20 / Double Bottom
❄️ Market Status: Cooling after Extreme Greed / Bottoming Period
1. Market Review: Rollercoaster Market, Did You Get Thrown Off the Car?
In just a few days, we experienced a complete fluctuation of the HS Index from 26 (Ice Point) to 80 (Overheating) and back to today's 32 (Cooling).
Observe today's latest 【HS Index Trend Analysis】 chart:
Gained and Lost: The green solid line (Index) officially broke below the orange MA20 average today. This indicates a depletion of short-term bullish strength, and the previous 'bounce' failed to directly translate into a 'reversal', leading the market back to a weak oscillation.
Box fluctuation: The index is approaching the previous low point area (20-30 range) again. From a technical perspective, it is very likely building a **'W bottom' (double bottom)** structure.
2. Why is it said that now is the 'golden pit'?
Watching the account drawdown, panic is a common human emotion. However, the Hengsheng quantitative model tells us to view the data rationally:
Valuation trough: The current reading 32.098 is far below the average value of 68.593 over the past six months.
Quantitative iron law: Price fluctuates around value. When the index deviates so much from the mean, the upward odds are excellent.
Emotional cleansing: This drop has likely cleansed the short-term speculative positions that chased high in the 50-60 range. With less weight, it is easier to lift.
Verification strategy: Recall the **'75% arbitrage + 25% holding currency'** strategy we released the day before yesterday. If you followed this configuration, although today's spot (25% position) has drawn down, the substantial arbitrage position (75%) is still earning stable returns from the rates. This is the charm of quantitative risk control - being able to sleep soundly during a major drop.
3. Hengsheng quantitative investment suggestions (medium to long-term strategy)
Facing the index breaking through the moving average, our strategy shifts from 'trend following' back to **'left-side regular investment'**.
🎯 Core strategy: Gradual acquisition, refuse to cut losses
For those with no positions/light positions:
Below 32 is an excellent 'accumulation' range.
Do not expect to buy at the lowest point (such extreme situations like -7.442 are rare). It is recommended to divide your funds into 3-5 portions, and buy once every 5 points drop within the index range of 20-35.For those who are trapped (bought at 50+):
It is strictly forbidden to panic and cut losses at this time.
The current position is in the lower middle band of the Bollinger Bands; selling at this time is highly likely to be selling at the 'floor price'. As long as the index is at historical low levels, time stands on the side of the bulls. Be patient and wait for the index to recover above MA20.Advanced operations:
Continue to maintain 'Capital rate arbitrage'The bottom position remains unchanged. Use the profits generated from arbitrage to slowly buy the spot around 30 at low positions, and reduce the holding cost through 'profit reinvestment'.
4. Market outlook
The market always cycles through 'despair-hesitation-enthusiasm'.
The current 32.098 is the stage of 'hesitation' and 'bottoming'.
In this range, patience is more important than confidence. Keep a close eye on the Hengsheng Index, waiting for the next strong green line to stand above the yellow line (MA20), which will signal a new round of main upward trend.
💡 When others panic, I am greedy, but being greedy must be methodical.
📢 Disclaimer: This article is based on Hengsheng quantitative model data analysis and is for reference only. The cryptocurrency market is highly risky; please make decisions according to your own risk tolerance.
