It already smells like custard and bells! But before we toast to 2026, December brings three bombs for your Bitcoin: the Fed's decision on rates (Dec 17-18), the fiscal closure with taxes (Dec 31), and the classic year-end rally.
As retailers, we are not funds with millions — we invest what we sweat, so I don't sell magical worlds.
My opinion: BTC closes December at $105,000. And you? Leave your bet in the comments — the closest wins a "virtual toast"! Now, let's see what happens and how to protect your pocket.
Section 1: The Fed and Rate Cuts (The Main Trigger)
The Federal Reserve meets on December 17-18, and there is an 87% probability that they will lower rates a little (25 basis points, according to CME FedWatch). Why does it matter? Lower rates = cheaper money to invest in risky assets like BTC. Historically, each cut has raised Bitcoin by 15-20% in 30 days (CoinMetrics).
For your pocket: If they cut, rally to $100k by the end of the month. If not, possible dip to $85k. My advice: don't FOMO completely — buy 20% now, hold 80% for surprise.
Section 2: Year-End Wrap-Up and Taxes (The Sweet Pain)
December is "fiscal closing" — people sell to pay taxes or adjust portfolios. In the USA/Latam, capital gains are taxed at 15-30% if you sell with a profit. Many holders sell in December to "clean up" before January (new fiscal year).
For your pocket: Expect 10-15% volatility due to sales. But post-tax, January brings "fresh money" (bonuses, inheritances). My tip: if you have profits, sell 10-20% now to cover taxes — the rest, HODL for the 2026 rally.
Section 3: The Christmas Rally and My Bet for December 31
December averages +20% historically for BTC (CoinMetrics 2017-2024), due to Christmas FOMO and extra liquidity (bonuses, tips). Added to the Fed + ETF inflows ($2.5B/week), my pure opinion: closing at $105,000 (moderately bullish, +17% from $94k today). It's not guaranteed — it could be $98k if there's a dip, or $112k if there's euphoria.
Christmas Closing (With Prosperity)
As the bells ring on the 31st, let’s toast to a 2026 of real profits and full pockets. May the Fed bring us low rates, taxes not hurt too much, and BTC gift us a rally that leaves us smiling. Prosperity for all — HODL with faith, but with a plan! What’s your bet for the 31? Leave it below, and may the most optimistic or realistic win. Merry Christmas, retailers! 🎄🔔💎
Share your prediction and let's toast virtually
