Right now, the market is pumping on positive vibes about a possible peace deal between the US and Iran. It makes sense, because if they really open the Strait of Hormuz, oil will calm down a bit, inflationary pressure will ease, and risk assets will get some breathing room.

But for now, this isn’t the end.

The main focus this week is the Fed.

The meeting will be led by Kevin Warsh. Everyone is expecting a softer stance on rates, as Trump critically needs rate cuts right now.

And here the logic is simple:

if Warsh hints at a future rate cut - that’s a strong bullish signal for crypto.

If they say that the main task of the Fed is to crush inflation, the market is going to feel the pain.

Especially considering that inflation risks haven't fully disappeared due to Iran and oil.

The second point - the Bank of Japan.

If they raise rates, we might start seeing a sell-off of risk assets due to currency buybacks. We've already seen how such scenarios end with heavy drops. And crypto isn't isolated from the rest of the world.

Third - the US and Iran.

Right now, everyone believes in the signing of a deal. But if something goes wrong, or there's any provocation, the positivity will vanish quickly. This narrative is keeping the market on its toes.

So the picture is straightforward:

peace + a dovish Fed + normal ETF inflows = very strong bullish sentiment for crypto.

But if the Fed takes a hawkish stance, Japan tightens rates, and the Iran deal falls apart - we could see another sell-off.

Honestly, the market is living more off news than charts right now.

So this week, it's better to keep an eye on what the big players are saying and signing 😅

💸CryptoRider69