Don't rush to claim that $BTC has hit the bottom!
From my perspective, the market is showing some positive signals after a strong correction.
The ceasefire between the US and Iran, along with recent inflation data, has significantly improved investor sentiment, leading to a recovery in risk assets like Bitcoin.
However, I believe it's still too early to confirm that Bitcoin has established a bottom.
While the price range above $60,000 offers a pretty attractive risk-reward ratio for long-term investors, the possibility of BTC returning to test the $50,000 area is still on the table if the market doesn't see new capital inflow.
The most important thing right now isn’t whether the price is up or down a few percent each day, but whether real capital is actually coming back.
In previous cycles, sustainable growth phases have always been supported by strong capital flows from ETFs and the expansion of stablecoin liquidity.
Currently, neither of these factors shows enough improvement to confirm a new bullish trend.
From a short-term perspective, I’m particularly watching two key events this week.
First is the speech from the Fed Chair. If the Fed signals a softer stance on interest rates and inflation pressures continue to cool down, the market could receive positive support.
On the flip side, any "hawkish" messages could weaken risk sentiment again.
Additionally, the agreement between the US and Iran expected to be signed this week could strongly impact oil prices, inflation, and global capital flows. This could be a macro event that’s much more significant than many are thinking.
From my perspective, the market is showing some positive signals after a strong correction.
The ceasefire between the US and Iran, along with recent inflation data, has significantly improved investor sentiment, leading to a recovery in risk assets like Bitcoin.
However, I believe it's still too early to confirm that Bitcoin has established a bottom.
While the price range above $60,000 offers a pretty attractive risk-reward ratio for long-term investors, the possibility of BTC returning to test the $50,000 area is still on the table if the market doesn't see new capital inflow.
The most important thing right now isn’t whether the price is up or down a few percent each day, but whether real capital is actually coming back.
In previous cycles, sustainable growth phases have always been supported by strong capital flows from ETFs and the expansion of stablecoin liquidity.
Currently, neither of these factors shows enough improvement to confirm a new bullish trend.
From a short-term perspective, I’m particularly watching two key events this week.
First is the speech from the Fed Chair. If the Fed signals a softer stance on interest rates and inflation pressures continue to cool down, the market could receive positive support.
On the flip side, any "hawkish" messages could weaken risk sentiment again.
Additionally, the agreement between the US and Iran expected to be signed this week could strongly impact oil prices, inflation, and global capital flows. This could be a macro event that’s much more significant than many are thinking.