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🔥🔥🔥Bond market bets on an early end to the Fed's easing cycle

【Bond market bets on an early end to the Fed's easing cycle】Golden Finance reports that bond traders are betting that the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting path over the next year will be shallower and shorter than previously expected, which is part of the global market's bet that major central banks will slow down or stop monetary easing.

Futures and options trading show that, besides the expected 25 basis point rate cut to be implemented on Wednesday, traders currently anticipate that the U.S. central bank will have a total rate cut space of only 50 basis points in 2026, with most of it concentrated in the first half of that year.

The weakening of expectations for Fed rate cuts has begun to manifest in futures linked to the secured overnight financing rate (SOFR), which closely tracks the central bank's policy path. On Tuesday, the negative spread between the December 2025 contract and the December 2026 contract was the smallest since June, reflecting that traders believe the extent of easing before the end of next year has decreased.

In terms of SOFR options, recent capital flows have been heavily tilted towards dovish hedges. However, they still mainly target the first half of next year. This position signal indicates that traders are hedging against a scenario where the Fed ends its rate-cutting cycle around the middle of next year and then pauses.

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