The 25 basis point interest rate cut has almost become a certainty. But the market is not as interested in the decision as it is in the 'future outlook.' The crucial moments that will determine the direction of $BTC and the markets after the announcement lie in two places:
1. 🎯 The dot plot: 2026 predictions
The real judgment tonight is the Dot Plot. We must focus on the committee members' predictions for the number of interest rate cuts next year.
If the majority expects 3 cuts or more (dovish): this means that liquidity will flow strongly into the markets. It is a direct bullish signal for $BTC, and we may see a break of immediate resistance levels.
If the expectations are hawkish: this means that the Fed will slow down on monetary easing. This will lead to an immediate decline in stock and cryptocurrency prices, as "good news has already been priced in."
2. 🗣️ Powell's speech: Between hawkishness and dovishness
Powell will try to balance two goals: lowering interest rates to support the labor market and preventing the markets from becoming overly exuberant (which could bring back inflation).
Powell's hawkish language: If Powell confirms that inflation still poses a threat, or that he "does not see rapid and consecutive cuts coming," the market will react negatively.
Powell's dovish language: If he indicates weakness in the labor market or hints at "the possibility of taking additional rapid actions" if necessary, this would be a green light for the markets.
Summary for the trader: Do not make any decision based on the decision itself (25 basis points). Be prepared to move quickly after analyzing the Dot Plot and Powell's language, as volatility will be sharp and choppy in the minutes following the announcement.
Do you expect Powell to be hawkish or dovish in his speech tonight? 👇
