The price trend of Ethereum over the next year is relatively optimistic, with the potential to benefit from factors such as technological upgrades and increased institutional investment, possibly rising above $7000. However, attention must also be paid to price corrections resulting from macroeconomic shocks and other risks. A detailed analysis is as follows:
- Technological upgrades drive price increases: The Fusaka upgrade is scheduled for completion on December 3, 2025, introducing peer-to-peer data availability sampling and scalability based solely on Blob parameters, which can reduce Layer 2 transaction fees by up to 95%, increase blob throughput by 8 times, and raise the gas limit.
This will enhance block validation efficiency, reduce reliance on L2 networks, and improve Layer 1 throughput, potentially increasing fee income for Ethereum holders, thereby driving prices up.
If L2 solutions are successfully applied, it is expected that by mid-2026, the price of Ethereum could rise above $7000.
- Institutional investment provides support: Currently, 43% of the circulating Ethereum is held by large institutions such as Goldman Sachs and Jane Street, and the inflow of institutional funds provides strong support for prices.
Moreover, the U.S. Ethereum ETF is expected to receive approval in early 2026, which will provide regulated entry points for institutional capital, further accelerating institutional adoption of Ethereum and potentially driving prices higher.
- Macroeconomic and regulatory impacts: The macroeconomic environment greatly affects the price of Ethereum. If macroeconomic shocks such as a recession in the U.S. occur, the price of Ethereum may drop, testing support levels around $2400.
However, the stablecoin framework in the GENIUS Act passed in July 2025 enhances Ethereum's attractiveness as a settlement and trading layer, and regulatory clarity is beneficial for its long-term development.
- Market supply and demand dynamics are favorable: Exchange reserves have dropped to 16.8 million ETH, the lowest level in five years, indicating a decrease in Ethereum's liquidity in the market, which may drive prices to rebound.
At the same time, staking activities have increased, with over 30% of ETH staked on the beacon chain, reducing market sell pressure and providing support for prices.
