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In the early morning, the Federal Reserve announced an interest rate cut of 25 basis points as expected, fully in line with market expectations. A few days ago, it was mentioned that the boot dropping was a favorable signal, which has already been priced in, while the rebound in recent weeks also included favorable expectations for the interest rate cut. With the benefits of the rate cut now realized, the rebound during this round of decline is likely to end at any time. From the perspective of policy rhythm, the probability of further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the coming months is extremely low. Meanwhile, the probability of a rate hike in Japan has risen to 90%. The short-term monetary policy is tightening, combined with the liquidity effect brought about by the approaching Christmas, the market liquidity is becoming tighter. In the absence of new favorable expectations for support, it is expected that the overall market will show a clearly weak trend in the second half of the month and even in January and February next year. The current market liquidity is far from the peak period of the previous bull market. If a slightly larger unexpected negative signal occurs later, it could easily trigger a market liquidity crunch, potentially breaking through the previous low point of 80,000 and continuing to search for support downwards. Based on the above views, I hold a pessimistic attitude towards the trend in the next three months. Originally, the plan to roll over operations in the rebound to the 95,000-97,000 area is likely to fail. Below 95,000, I do not plan to roll over operations, and I will continue to firmly hold the short position of #BTC and ETH.

#zec After the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut last night, it immediately broke through the short-term support level of 420, and the price directly dropped below the 400 mark. Considering the expectation of the market continuing to bottom out in the future, the weekly level rebound of ZEC is very likely to have ended here. Currently, the short-term contract funds in the market are basically no longer paying attention to ZEC, but are flowing into $pippin for speculative games, which means ZEC will gradually withdraw from market attention. The market liquidity will further shrink, and the trend is likely to be dominated by a downward slide, making it difficult to see another rebound against the trend. This round of rebound only reached the first target near 450, and orders in the 450-500 range may not be executed. In terms of position operations, yesterday could not continue to attack, and no orders were executed. The rolling strategy will only be executed in relatively high rebound areas. After the rebound ends, no aggressive rolling will be participated in during the downward process, and the plan is to wait for the market price to break below 300 and drop below 240 before gradually closing positions.