Stop messing around in the fluctuations! While most people are still struggling with the 80,000-90,000 range for BTC, the whales have already completed their secret accumulation during the pullback window, while some cryptocurrencies are hiding a crisis of plummeting under regulatory and structural risks. As an analyst who has been deeply engaged in the market for many years, today I will use the most hardcore on-chain data and news to help you identify short-term (1-3 months) to medium-term (3-6 months) certainty opportunities, with clear layout strategies and reference points. Understanding this article can at least help you avoid 80% of the pitfalls!
1. Bullish core targets: 3 potential coins that whales are 'secretly accumulating'
1. XRP: Policy dividends + whale buying frenzy, certainty of rising is full.
Rising Logic: The most critical catalyst is undoubtedly the resolution of the SEC and Ripple case; the XRP ETF has transitioned from expectation to reality, completely opening the entry channel for compliant funds. On-chain data has also given clear signals: in the past 30 days, addresses holding 100 million to 1 billion XRP have net increased by 970 million, and super large whales holding over 1 billion have increased their holdings by 150 million, with these two types of addresses totaling over $2.4 billion inflow; meanwhile, the exchange balance of XRP has continued to decline to a new low since 2023, indicating that chips are concentrating from retail investors to whales, and tightening liquidity can easily trigger a violent surge.
Layout Strategy: Short-term support is between $0.65 and $0.7, where positions can be built in batches, controlling the position at 15%-20% of total funds; in the medium term, if it breaks through the previous resistance of $0.85, it is likely to surge towards $1.0. It is recommended to withdraw one-third of profits when exceeding 15% profit, with a stop loss set at 3%, automatically closing positions at $0.63, using the system to manage trades.
2. ADA: An established Layer 1 that is accumulating against the trend, breaking through will initiate a main upward wave.
Rising Logic: In the context of altcoins generally retracing 15%-40%, ADA is experiencing a rare phenomenon of 'whale rotation buying': top wallets holding over 1 billion ADA have cumulatively increased their holdings by 130 million since November 24, while large holders in the 10 million to 1 billion range have also increased their holdings by 150 million, fully demonstrating the recognition of bottom value by large holders. Technically, the current price is close to recent lows, and once it breaks through the key resistance at $0.43, the bullish pattern will be completely unlocked, and it is expected to challenge $0.52 in the follow-up.
Layout Strategy: The precise entry point is in the range of $0.38 to $0.4, which is the main cost area for whales and has very high safety; if it falls below $0.38, the bullish signal is invalidated and one must exit decisively. The medium-term target is to first look at $0.52, at which point one can reduce half of the position to lock in profits, with the remaining portion setting a trailing stop to protect profits and avoid riding a roller coaster.
3. UNI: DeFi blue chips are welcoming a turnaround, with real earnings driving valuation recovery.
Rising Logic: As the TVL in the DeFi sector continues to rise, UNI, as the leading decentralized exchange, is experiencing fundamental improvements. After the passing of the fee switch vote, real income has begun to rise steadily, becoming one of the core targets for whales’ layouts. On-chain data shows that in the past week, whales have added approximately 800,000 tokens (worth nearly $5 million), with the top 100 addresses collectively holding 8.98 million UNI, while the exchange supply has been continuously decreasing, increasing the concentration of chips.
Layout Strategy: Short-term entry points are between $6.2 and $6.5, which correspond to recent pullback lows and are supported by whale accumulation; medium-term resistance is between $8.5 and $9. After reaching the target price, consider selling in two batches: the first reduction by 60%, and the remaining portion will wait to see if it breaks through the previous high. Set the stop loss at $6 to strictly avoid the downside risk after a breakdown.
2. Lightning Warning: ABTC is likely to continue its downward trend, avoid it resolutely!
Logic for Big Drop: American Bitcoin (ABTC), supported by the Trump family, has become a typical case of recent market turbulence, plunging over 50% within 30 minutes of the opening on December 2, although it has slightly rebounded, structural risks remain unresolved. The core issues are threefold: first, the ownership is highly concentrated, and after early investors unlock shares, they create huge selling pressure; second, the market's risk appetite is declining, and against the backdrop of the overall weakness in cryptocurrency, the 'celebrity + crypto' label has become a catalyst for fund outflows; third, its business model overly relies on external attention and lacks core technical support, making it difficult to withstand market fluctuations.
Operational Advice: Regardless of whether there is a rebound in the short term, do not enter to catch the bottom, to avoid becoming a 'bag holder.' Fans holding this cryptocurrency should immediately set strict stop losses, or directly liquidate their positions. In the medium term, its stock price is likely to approach below $2.
3. Core Layout Principles: Remember these 3 points, which are more important than selecting the right cryptocurrency.
1. Three Money Strategy: Split funds into 30% for intraday trading (only for certain targets like XRP, UNI, etc., close after a 5% gain), 30% for medium-term layout (ADA, UNI, etc., never enter before reaching support levels), 20% emergency funds (locked and untouched to cope with extreme market conditions), and allocate the remaining 20% flexibly; 2. Only catch the main upward wave: Currently, 70% of the market time is in a consolidation phase, avoid blindly entering during this period, wait for clear volume signals such as XRP breaking $0.85, ADA breaking $0.43, etc., before adding positions; 3. System manage trades: Set each trade's stop loss strictly at 3%, immediately move stop loss to breakeven after exceeding 8% profit, and eliminate the fatal operation of 'feeling-based stop loss withdrawal.'
Lastly, I want to say to everyone: the market never eliminates the poor, only the undisciplined gamblers. The recent operational logic of whales has become very clear: pullbacks are buying windows, prioritize tracks with policy dividends or real income. Remember, making big money in the crypto world is not about guessing market trends, but about seizing certain opportunities and maintaining risk control bottom lines. Follow me@男神说币 #加密市场反弹 $BTC
