1. Macro and overall market

- The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25bp and restarted government bond purchases: The Federal Reserve meeting confirmed the rate cut, but the dot plot only expects one rate cut each in 2026-2027. Powell emphasized 'watching the economy before deciding', and the market interpreted it as the end of loose monetary policy. BTC briefly surged before falling below 91K (currently about 90,051 USD, -2.8%), and ETH fell to 3,182 USD (-4.3%). The positive news has been priced in early, leading to significant 'sell the news' pressure in the short term. The Bank of Japan may raise interest rates on December 18, further increasing pressure. Value point: liquidity is relatively tight in the short term, but still favorable for risk assets in the long term, with a focus on the BTC support level of 89K.

- Corporate BTC holding trend slows down: 117 companies added BTC treasury in 2025, but only 9 in Q4 (53 in Q3), BTC dropped 28% from the October peak of 126K to around 90K. MicroStrategy continues to buy aggressively 21.48 billion USD in BTC, but overall adoption is slowing. Value Point: BTC's positioning as 'digital gold' is solid, there may be bottom-fishing opportunities by the end of the year, targeting a bottom of 58,000 - 71,000 USD.

2. Regulation and Institutional Dynamics

- CFTC first allows BTC/ETH/USDC as futures collateral: The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission confirmed support for BTC, ETH, and USDC as native collateral for derivatives, marking the first time crypto assets have officially integrated into the traditional futures system. Value Point: Strengthens the financial attributes of mainstream currencies, accelerates institutional entry, favorable for ETH ETF inflows (net inflow of 1.291 billion USD today).

- Nexo acquires Argentina's Buenbit: Nexo acquired the Latin American crypto platform Buenbit for an undisclosed amount, expanding loan, high-yield savings, and trading services. Klarna collaborates with Privy to explore wallet integration. Value Point: The institutionalization trend in Latin America/Europe is obvious, and privacy coins (like Zcash) are strengthening against the trend, becoming a 'counter-cyclical' bet.

- Do Kwon faces sentencing in Terra case: Terraform Labs founder Do Kwon will be tried in the U.S. for misleading investors, and this case may set a precedent for stablecoin regulation. Value Point: Warning about the risks of algorithmic stablecoins, favorable for compliant stablecoins like USDC.

3. Project and Token Unlock Events

- This week 237M USD token unlock: Aptos (APT) unlocks 11.31 million tokens today (worth 19.79 million USD, accounting for 0.8% of circulation); LINEA unlocks 1.38 billion tokens tomorrow (11 million USD, 6.76% circulation); Cheelee unlocks 20.81 million tokens on the 13th (10.86 million USD). Value Point: High short-term selling pressure risk, pay attention to whether APT triggers Layer 1 corrections, DePIN/AI sector has already dropped over 5% (Filecoin -7.5%, Render -5.5%).

- Gensyn AI public sale launched: Registration on December 9, auction on the 15th (FDV 1 million - 1 billion USD). Fogo public sale on the 17th (FDV 1 billion USD). Value Point: AI narrative is warming up, Gensyn has great potential (led by Pantera), but valuation bubble needs attention.

- Other Hotspots: SurfAI raised 15 million USD (led by Pantera); Horizen restarted Layer 3 mainnet (1 million ZEN fund); Octra privacy chain public sale raised 12 million USD (valuation of 200 million USD). Value Point: The combination of privacy and AI is popular, OKX Launch added SentismAI/BeatSwap (requires Boost ≥ 200 USD + transaction 600 USD).

4. Shanzhai and Meme Opportunities

- Shanzhai Season Index 18: BTC dominance rises, shanzhai coins generally decline (SOL -5%, XRP/SUI same), but ETH/BTC exchange rate rises, public chain funds flow back. SEI rose due to cooperation with Xiaomi. Value Point: Pay attention to the rebound of the ETH ecosystem, Memes like $POM (20x), $BudgyBenguin (7x), $CALVIN (32x) may explode in the short term, but beware of FUD (He Yi said Memes have no long-term viability).

- X Community Hotspot: @TheoriqAI 7-day Yapping reward of 500K THQ; @MemeMax_Fi Phase 2 distributes 800,000 USD in M tokens; Warden PUMP Sprint rewards doubled to 7 million. Value Point: Active mouth operations + point activities, suitable for low-cost participation, but competition is fierce (Kaito Eco airdrops are mostly small amounts).

5. Risks and Recommendations

- Security Warning: 260,000 follower KOL lost 60,000 USD (Tel authorization vulnerability); Grampe466 lost 400,000 USD (Vibe authorization + wash trading). Value Point: Prioritize KYC + limit authorization, volume manipulation activities (such as MSX Christmas lottery, StandX points) have high ROI, but beware of exploitation.

- Intraday Strategy: BTC range 90.2K-92.3K for high selling and low buying, ETH 3.22K-3.36K; long-term hold OKB (165 USD entry). Overall: Focus on defense, avoid high leverage, wait for the Japanese interest rate hike on December 18 to explore the bottom.

The market is cautious today, but regulatory benefits + institutional inflows provide support. Focus on the evening 12H close (BTC needs to hold the trend line). Tomorrow's focus: Impact of Aptos unlock + more AI public sale details. Maintain flexible positions, good luck!