Good evening, brothers

The Fed's shoe has dropped. According to the dot plot, it shows that there may only be one rate cut next year. There are still significant internal divisions within the Fed, and the most important data will depend on the labor market demand, which will influence next year's rate cut strategy.

Now there is another shoe waiting to drop, which is the matter of Japan's interest rate hike. Recent rumors generally suggest that around the 18th, the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates to 0.75%. If Japan starts to raise rates and continues with a hawkish stance, global capital will begin to change its flow. This topic has been discussed before, and it is definitely bearish for Bitcoin.

On the data front, long-term holders are still selling, and the speed is faster than before. I don't know if they have noticed something. As for ETF data, it has been relatively stable recently, in a balanced state of inflows and outflows.

Today someone asked me how I see Banmu Xia. Teacher Banmu Xia also spoke today, saying that Bitcoin might rise to a range of 10.3-11.25 in the next month. First of all, Teacher Ban uses the wave theory for judgment. As everyone knows, wave theory can yield different results for different people using the same tools.

Additionally, I still hold my own opinion. As mentioned before, I am still not very optimistic about the market in the short term. One reason is macro policy, and another is that there isn't much on-chain data to support a significant price increase. I actually hope to have an opportunity to touch 9.8, giving me a chance to join the short side.

Finally, in the past few days, the activity of mining night on a certain platform has been quite good. I managed to get this month's living expenses sorted out, which is nice for those of us who are currently holding a large empty position. Next time I'll keep a close eye on the activities and jump in at the first opportunity.

I went hiking today and just got home, writing a bit. I will reply to everyone in the comments and private messages tomorrow.

Good night~!