#BTC闲聊 In the past month, there hasn't been a single bullish trend. Let's break down the sell-off logic and the bottom rhythm.
Looking back at Bitcoin's performance over the month, it hasn't seen a decent rally at all.
After peaking at 78200, the big players slowly started taking profits, selling off in batches. The higher the price went, the more sell-off chips were cashed in, and retail investors hesitated to chase the rally at high levels, leaving no funds to support the rise, which completely stalled.
During the dip to 59130, there was a brief rebound, but it couldn't push past 67000 at all.
To put it bluntly, this rebound was merely a self-help recovery for funds trapped after the drop; it lacked any long-term capital influx. The signs are clear: increasing volume on the way down, decreasing volume on the rebound, and when prices are pushed up, buy orders are sparse; a slight increase triggers selling pressure. The rebound highs keep getting lower, resembling a breathing moment in a downtrend that lures in more buyers.
Currently, all moving averages are pointing down, suppressing the market, and the bearish trend hasn't changed. Don't expect a strong one-sided rally in the short term.
Next, the main strategy is to oscillate back and forth to grind out a bottom, torturing sentiment with up-and-down spikes, repeatedly testing the previous low of 59130:
1. If the previous low holds, expect oscillation between 60000-65000;
2. If it breaks the low, it will head towards the 56000-58000 range to carve out a mid-term bottom.
A word of caution for everyone:
In a downtrend, don’t mistake a small rebound for a bottom reversal; jumping in heavy to catch the bottom can easily leave you stuck halfway up the hill. Bottoms are grinded out through oscillation, not guessed. Wait patiently for stabilization signals and gradually build your position for safety.
Do you think we can hold the 59130 low this time? Let’s discuss in the comments.
⚠️This is just personal market commentary and does not constitute investment advice$TSLAB $BTC
Looking back at Bitcoin's performance over the month, it hasn't seen a decent rally at all.
After peaking at 78200, the big players slowly started taking profits, selling off in batches. The higher the price went, the more sell-off chips were cashed in, and retail investors hesitated to chase the rally at high levels, leaving no funds to support the rise, which completely stalled.
During the dip to 59130, there was a brief rebound, but it couldn't push past 67000 at all.
To put it bluntly, this rebound was merely a self-help recovery for funds trapped after the drop; it lacked any long-term capital influx. The signs are clear: increasing volume on the way down, decreasing volume on the rebound, and when prices are pushed up, buy orders are sparse; a slight increase triggers selling pressure. The rebound highs keep getting lower, resembling a breathing moment in a downtrend that lures in more buyers.
Currently, all moving averages are pointing down, suppressing the market, and the bearish trend hasn't changed. Don't expect a strong one-sided rally in the short term.
Next, the main strategy is to oscillate back and forth to grind out a bottom, torturing sentiment with up-and-down spikes, repeatedly testing the previous low of 59130:
1. If the previous low holds, expect oscillation between 60000-65000;
2. If it breaks the low, it will head towards the 56000-58000 range to carve out a mid-term bottom.
A word of caution for everyone:
In a downtrend, don’t mistake a small rebound for a bottom reversal; jumping in heavy to catch the bottom can easily leave you stuck halfway up the hill. Bottoms are grinded out through oscillation, not guessed. Wait patiently for stabilization signals and gradually build your position for safety.
Do you think we can hold the 59130 low this time? Let’s discuss in the comments.
⚠️This is just personal market commentary and does not constitute investment advice$TSLAB $BTC