Here are detailed and updated insights until December 11, 2025, at 19:00 UTC regarding Terra Classic (LUNC), focusing on the impact of the legal ruling against Do Kwon as well as the technical and fundamental analysis of the market:
📌 1. Legal impact: ruling against Do Kwon
Major legal events:
Do Kwon, co-founder of Terraform Labs, is facing a court ruling in the United States on fraud charges related to the collapse of Terra USD and LUNA in 2022, with the prosecution seeking 12 years in prison while the defense requests less (regarding this current ruling).
How does the ruling affect LUNC?
Psychological and market impact: the ruling has made investors react to the news, which has boosted speculative activities and increased volatility in the price of LUNC in recent days.
There is no direct technical impact on the protocol itself as LUNC is not directly tied to the ruling outcomes; however, it enters the market narrative and generates new interest from traders.
This makes the ruling a source of high volatility and not a long-term fundamental factor in the actual value of the currency.
📉 2. Price and recent movements
Market performance:
The price of LUNC has seen significant increases over the past week (e.g., gains of 70–160% in some reports) amid increased trading activity before and after the ruling against Do Kwon.
Prices could see very high volatility — rapid increases may be followed by sharp declines.
Live price data:
At the time of writing this news, trades showed a price in varied ranges with bullish momentum before the market cools down relatively.
📊 3. Fundamental technical factors
A. Support and resistance levels
Technical indicators indicate potential overbought conditions in the short term after the increases, which could lead to a correction towards $0.000050 or lower if momentum does not continue.
B. Upgrades and governance
Community voting on network update v3.6.1, focusing on security and technical compatibility, is expected to occur on December 18, 2025 — this event could generate new momentum or downward pressure depending on implementation.
C. Token Burns
Token burns have been a short-term bullish factor as they reduce supply. However, their long-term impact is limited due to the massive total supply of LUNC.
🔍 4. Supply and demand analysis
Momentum disruptions
Open Interest has significantly decreased recently, indicating that the increases are driven by short-term trades rather than large institutions.
Bitcoin dominance
Increased Bitcoin dominance in the market traditionally weakens the performance of altcoins like LUNC, and this could be a downward pressure factor in the short term.
📅 5. Short and medium-term forecasts
In summary:
Short term (Days–Weeks): Significant volatility potential related to the ruling outcomes and market reactions (volatile).
Medium term (Weeks–Months): Technical moves such as updates and governance may dictate the direction, with potential for correction after a sharp upward wave.
👉 Available price prediction trends also show many varied ranges depending on platforms and analyses, indicating significant divergence in market sentiment and technical analysis.
📌 Summary of insights
Positive factors: ✔️ Renewed interest from traders after the legal news.
✔️ Token burn activity.
✔️ Technical developments and community governance decisions.
Negative factors or warnings: ❗ Heavy reliance on news events and short-term traders.
❗ Overbought indicators may lead to a correction.
❗ Bitcoin dominance reduces liquidity flow to altcoins.
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