Ethereum has recently experienced a typical "false breakout" market: the price surged to resistance levels, seeming poised to continue rising, but was immediately pushed back down, erasing a wave of gains in an instant. This kind of movement usually indicates that the short-term rebound may be coming to an end, and the strength of the bulls is not strong enough.

Why does this "false breakout" occur?

Because there are several layers of pressure above Ethereum: the descending trend line, the 50-day moving average, and the 100-day moving average. These positions are equivalent to a "ceiling." If the market were really strong, it would break through these resistances directly with trading volume, but this time it surged without much buying support—resulting in a natural pullback.

What does a normal healthy rise look like?

● The price can steadily hold above the resistance after breaking through

● Trading volume increases (indicating active buying)

● Pullbacks turn resistance into support, then continue upward

But this time, the situation is completely the opposite:

● Trading volume actually shrank during the surge

● It was quickly smashed back down upon hitting resistance

● Large holders clearly took advantage of the rebound to sell

This level of false breakout, based on past experience, often means:

✔ Next, it will either enter a deeper correction

✔ Or it will enter a period of sideways movement

However, it is not entirely pessimistic. Although Ethereum has been troubled by selling pressure in the past few weeks, the price has not collapsed; instead, it has continuously shown "higher lows" under selling pressure, indicating that bottom buying is still present. The RSI is also not exaggerated, with no signs of overheating or panic.

What should we watch next?

The key support zone is between 3050 and 3150 USD.

If ETH can hold here and challenge the 50-day moving average again, while trading volume increases, then the next round of breakout may come. Once it successfully stands above the 50-day and 100-day moving averages, the bullish trend will significantly strengthen, and the target of 3500 USD or even higher will return to expectations.

In summary:

Short-term resistance and false breakouts are evident, but the trend is not dead. After holding the key interval, Ethereum still has the opportunity to attack again.