Let me explain to everyone: In the winter of 2016, I was staring at the food delivery app on my folding bed in a makeshift rental in the city for a full 40 minutes, hesitating to place an order for a 15 yuan braised pork rice. At that time, my bank card balance was stuck at 198.76 yuan, and I hadn’t settled next month’s rent, struggling even to decide between instant noodles and a sausage. Who could have imagined that 8 years later I could lean against the floor-to-ceiling window of a luxury apartment in Shenzhen Bay, sipping hand-brewed coffee while enjoying the sea view, with enough in my account to buy two more small apartments? Don’t be envious; this isn’t a story of a turnaround success, but rather the four survival rules I forged through three liquidation events, countless losses, and even the despair of almost smashing my computer on the day of March 12, 2020.
As an experienced analyst who has been in the industry for 8 years, I won't play metaphysics or talk big today—it's all practical and heartfelt insights. After all, this market has never been a charity; it's a hell that devours people without spitting out bones. Only those who survive have the right to wait for the dawn of the bull market.
Rule One: Don’t be the 'exit buyer' for market makers; these three signals must be remembered.
When I first entered the market, I was also a rookie. In 2017, I saw a certain altcoin surge 300% in three months. In a moment of excitement, I threw all my money into it, only to be ground down within a few days and get liquidated. Looking back now, that trend was simply a blatant 'harvest announcement' from the market makers!
Later, I reviewed hundreds of cases to understand: a short-term surge of over 30%, followed by sideways consolidation at a high position for 3 days, and then suddenly a volume-driven drop of over 15%—this is the signal that funds are trying to exit, hurry up and leave without hesitation. Last year, when a certain popular ecological cryptocurrency surged to a high position, it perfectly replicated this trend. I decisively cleared my position to avoid risk, only to watch it drop by 60% afterward. Many who chased the high were left crying in front of their screens. Honestly, the market makers are never philanthropists; the soaring pie they paint is just full of pits dug for retail investors.
Rule Two: A 'dead silence' at high levels is scarier than a crash; keep a close eye on this set of data.
In 2019, I made a fatal mistake: I heavily invested in a mainstream cryptocurrency that had been trading sideways for two months. At that time, it seemed stable with little volatility, but the trading volume halved shortly after, and it dropped from a high of 12 dollars. I was stuck and unable to move. After that experience, I realized that the scariest thing in the crypto world is not a crash, but the 'dead silence' at high levels.
Now I have a habit of monitoring the market: as long as the turnover rate of a certain cryptocurrency falls below 2% and the price is still floating more than 20% above the 20-day moving average, I add it to my alert list. This indicates that funds have quietly retreated, and the remaining participants are retail investors swapping positions, leading to a high probability of 'free fall'. I have even set up automatic alerts on my trading software; once this signal triggers, it automatically reduces my position, and I have never suffered such losses again.
Rule Three: The true bottom hides the 'volume password'; don’t go bottom-fishing carelessly and become 'chives'.
Speaking of bottom-fishing, who hasn't stepped into a pit? During the '3.12' crash in 2020, I watched a certain popular ecological coin drop significantly. In a moment of excitement, I jumped in to catch the bottom, only to find myself stuck halfway up the mountain. During that time, even eating instant noodles felt tasteless. Later, I spent half a month reviewing 300 bottom cases and finally figured out the 'password' to the true bottom.
The true bottom can never be confirmed by just 'one big bullish candle'; it must meet two conditions: first, a period of low volume consolidation, and then three consecutive days of gently increasing volume with bullish candles. Last year, when the leading cryptocurrencies dropped to the 25,000 range, this signal appeared. Combining my position management, I reasonably allocated some funds, and when it rose to the 42,000 range six months later, I decisively took profits, which just happened to cover the down payment for a house in Shenzhen. Remember, bottom-fishing is not about 'gambling'; it's about responding to signals.
Rule Four: Volume is 'life', position is 'soul'. These two phrases are etched into my DNA.
The core to surviving in the market is actually just two things: understanding volume and managing your position. I often tell my followers two phrases that you should remember: 'The K-line is the script written by the market makers, and the trading volume reveals the hidden flaws.' 'Never go all in; leave half of your position for survival.'
Last year, a certain meme asset exploded in popularity. The entire internet was crazily following the trend, and many friends privately messaged me asking if they should jump in. I had just one suggestion: don’t panic, wait for the signal. It wasn't until it broke out of the range and the volume surged 5 times that I cautiously entered with a small position. Later, as soon as the trendline broke, I immediately took profits and exited. In the end, I only made 10 times my investment, which may not be as much as those high-chasing 'gamblers', but it was stable and allowed me to perfectly avoid the subsequent crash to zero. Honestly, in this market, 'surviving' is always more important than 'making more money'.
Friends, I have seen too many people rush into the market with dreams of 'getting rich overnight', only to either be crushed by liquidation or harvested by vaporware projects, leaving behind a mess. These 4 rules I have can't provide you with a shortcut to wealth, but they can help you avoid pitfalls and survive in this hellish arena.
The bull market will come, but the prerequisite is that you have to hold on until that day. I have been doing this for 3 years and have never spoken empty words or clichés. Every week, I will analyze 3 real operational cases to help everyone avoid pitfalls and stop losses, and clarify their thinking. Follow me@男神说币 #加密市场反弹 $BTC
