Brothers, we must talk about this week's Q4 trading guide today, the information is immense!
First point: The downward trend has been confirmed, and it can't be smashed down in the short term!
BTC surged to 80,000, and the market has formed a clear 'stop falling' signal. This is not a wild guess, but is supported by hard indicators: IBIT and MSTR have shown significant volume signals on a daily level.
More importantly, my most important signal in trading—the weekly MACD energy bars have formed hollow bars, which means the power of the downward trend's exhaustion is already in place.
Second point: The aggressives (those playing contracts) can take a break!
The aggressive strategies from the early phase of the consolidation (such as trading small fluctuations in futures) have already passed the best timing. At that time, only doing the first three fluctuations was the best rhythm. Now the market has shown a converging pattern, volatility has decreased, and futures trading is completely unsuitable; if you do it, you are easily stopped out by those 'aggressive' false breakouts.
Third point: Tools must be changed! Now is the main stage for options!
Since the aggressive opportunities are gone, we must turn to a conservative approach—options trading.
1. Strategy One: My favorite 'buy low strategy.' This strategy is never wrong in a bullish context. Although it is not a typical bull market now, since we have confirmed a stop-loss, it can still be used. If the price does not fall below the strike price, we will earn premiums; if it really falls, we will buy spot or futures for a rebound. However, note that low buying now must have a time limit, such as only until the end of the month or after Q4 expiration.
2. Strategy Two: Sell Straddle/Strangle. The price is currently right at the central axis, which is very suitable. We simultaneously sell calls and puts, collecting double premiums.
The key point is here:
The annual options expiration is on December 26, and the massive open interest of 85,000 is the first major pain point, while another pain point is 100,000. Let's focus on these two price levels, selling options below 85,000 and above 100,000, and cash out! Since the current price is slightly closer to the lower end, I personally tend to use most of my position to sell put options (Port).
Final summary:
It is still uncertain whether the future will continue to consolidate or enter a downward continuation. Should long-term buy spot to lay the groundwork for the next wave of bullish trends? This trade is the most important, but the timing is definitely not right, as the market lacks the trend force to be born. Therefore, the current focus is to shorten the cycle, use tools like options as substitutes, and concentrate on those short-term trades that can 'realize' (lock in profits).
