$MERL has actually given signals during this period: short-term pressure remains heavy, and there are currently no signs of a quick reversal, making it more suitable to continue observing.

The biggest technical issue is that the $0.5 threshold has consistently been difficult to breach. Three attempts have been pushed back by selling pressure, and the closer it gets to the high point, the more obvious the selling pressure becomes. Recently, there has also been a divergence between price and volume: prices are attempting to rise, but the trading volume isn't keeping up, indicating that there are very few buyers willing to step in, and large funds do not seem inclined to force a breakthrough.

The broader environment is also unhelpful. BTC and ETH are both weakening, and market sentiment is cautious, making it even more difficult for MERL to strengthen independently.

Moreover, this month is a major unlocking period, with nearly 700 billion tokens to be released over four days on 12/15/16/19. Even if not all tokens will be sold off, the expectation of “a large amount of low-cost assets at any time” itself is a significant pressure, which will also noticeably compress the rebound space, making it easy for profit-taking to cap any upward movements.

In summary:

The technical aspects are struggling, and the supply side is also bearish, leading to a more pressured short-term scenario.

A more prudent approach now is to wait for the unlocking.