Bitcoin rebounds, but the real risks are not gone yet
Today the crypto market is a bit "volatile":
On one side, Bitcoin and mainstream coins have slightly rebounded, while macro and institutional news continue to tighten the market's constraints.
📌 Bitcoin once rebounded over 2%, returning above $92,000, and Ethereum also followed suit, indicating signs of short-term risk appetite recovery, largely driven by the global stock market's warming.
📌 However, the Federal Reserve's latest statements remain cautious: nominally cutting interest rates, yet the tone is quite "hawkish", making the market realize that - easing won't come too quickly, and Bitcoin subsequently retraced part of the gains, continuing to be pressured around $90,000.
⚠ Two signals worth watching today
① The risk of Strategy (MSTR) being adjusted from the index.
The controversy over whether Strategy will be removed from the Nasdaq 100 is still fermenting. Once determined to be removed, passive funds may be forced to sell, which is not just a stock price issue for the company, but will also affect its Bitcoin holdings and market sentiment.
② Despite the rebound, the funding sentiment remains fragile.
Although there is a rebound on the surface, capital flow has not significantly warmed up, and the uncertainty of macro rates and index weight adjustments makes the market feel more like it is in "passive fluctuation" rather than "active advancement".
🎯 How to view this market trend?
Short-term: it is a weak rebound + emotional testing, a single piece of news can pull the market back and forth.
Medium-term: we need to watch two things - whether the Federal Reserve's stance will truly turn dovish, and whether ETF and institutional funds will continue to flow back.
In a nutshell, the market is still looking for a "new equilibrium":
Some are seizing the rebound, while others are waiting for a deeper correction.
What truly determines the next wave of trends is - who will start to build positions during the hesitation period.
Do you think this wave today is a "real rebound" or a "flash in the pan"?
