$ETH #加密市场反弹 Recent discussions about Ethereum have mainly focused on several directions, covering changes in the macro environment and the impact of specific technical updates.
· New Narrative from Wall Street and Regulators
· Main Points: Some analysts believe that the capital network between Wall Street and Washington has formed a new chain: U.S. political and economic elites → U.S. Treasuries → Stablecoins/Crypto Wallets → Ethereum + RWA (Real-World Assets) + L2. Recent statements by the SEC Chairman regarding the migration of the entire U.S. financial market to blockchain in the coming years have reinforced this expectation.
· Impact Analysis: This is seen as a powerful structural bull market narrative, where traditional financial assets (e.g., U.S. Treasuries) could ultimately be tokenized on Ethereum and its second layer, forming strong value support.
· Fusaka Upgrade and Deflation Expectations
· Major Changes: The recent Fusaka upgrade on Ethereum aims to address the issue of insufficient L1 value in L2 development. The upgrade introduces a mechanism that encourages L2 activities to pay minimum data fees, part of which is destroyed.
· Key Indicators: After the upgrade, the fees from Blobs have become the largest contributor to ETH destruction, accounting for up to 98%, with more than 1500 ETH destroyed daily. If L2 activity continues to grow, ETH may re-enter a deflationary state.
· Market Structure and Technical Signals
· Position Changes: Market data shows that the ETH supply on exchanges is at a historic low, accounting for about 10% of the total supply, indicating relatively low potential selling pressure.
· Market Sentiment: After the market downturn, the speculative leverage level in the cryptocurrency industry has fallen to a historic low (e.g., 4%), indicating that panic sentiment has been fully released. Meanwhile, ETH/BTC has remained in consolidation since November, and the previous strategy of 'long BTC/short ETH' has lost its effectiveness.
· Core Logic: Currently, the rapid growth of second-layer Ethereum (L2) and its impact on the main chain remains unclear. Although capital is flowing into ETH ETFs, its scale and impact may be limited.
Overall, market sentiment towards Ethereum is complex, but generally optimistic:
. The main bull market scenario is based on the grand narrative of 'traditional finance on-chain', the value capture brought by technological upgrades, and deflationary models, as well as a healthy structure after the exit of leveraged positions.
. A bearish or cautious assessment is related to the actual value of L2 growth and the uncertainty regarding the duration of ETF capital inflows.
