$ETH The biggest negative news for next week's Black Friday is here! The Federal Reserve just cut interest rates on the 10th, and Japan is anxiously raising rates on the 19th. The Bank of Japan is not just raising rates next week, but are there even bigger moves ahead? According to insiders, Bank of Japan officials privately believe that interest rates will likely need to rise above 0.75% before this round of rate hikes will end—this sends a clear signal: the expected rate hike next week may just be the beginning of a series of actions. The market is almost 100% certain that the Bank of Japan will raise the benchmark interest rate from 0.5% to 0.75% at the meeting on December 18-19. But this is no longer a suspense; the real focus is: where will the path of interest rate hikes ultimately lead? Key clues are hidden in the 'neutral interest rate'—the level at which interest rates neither stimulate nor burden the economy. The Bank of Japan currently estimates that the neutral interest rate (nominal) range is about 1% to 2.5%, and some officials believe that even if rates reach 1%, they may not have touched the neutral line. Therefore, 0.75% is clearly not the endpoint. The median forecast from market surveys shows that the final interest rate may settle at 1.25%, which means that in addition to next week, there may be at least two more rate hikes in the future. Although Governor Ueda has previously mentioned that they might announce estimates while narrowing the neutral interest rate range, internal views suggest that this range is difficult to predict accurately and will not serve as a 'roadmap' for future rate hikes. Instead, the Bank of Japan will emphasize that after each rate hike, they will carefully observe the impact on bank loans, corporate financing, and economic activity before deciding on the next steps. An important reason supporting the rate hike is that although they have begun to raise rates, due to inflation exceeding the 2% target for three consecutive years, Japan's actual borrowing costs remain at 'deeply negative' levels. This provides a basis for continuing rate hikes. Simply put: the rate hike next week is a done deal, but in the Bank of Japan's script, the next page may read 'to be continued.' They will keep the option of continuing rate hikes while also being cautious and emphasizing that the pace depends on economic data. $BTC $ZEC Global market, please fasten your seatbelts. #加密市场反弹 #ETH走势分析